Is Facebook a Passing Fad? Nearly Half of Americans Think So

[Bill Rini]

According to a poll conducted by the Associated Press and CNBC, 46% of respondents think Facebook will fade away as new platforms come along in the future.

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How long do you give Facebook? LOL

Actually, I do think that Facebook will eventually stumble. They remind me a lot of AOL back when AOL was the largest ISP in the world.

MySpace died very quickly. They were basically the biggest game in town and all of a sudden Facebook came out of nowhere and now MySpace is a joke. The same could happen to Facebook if some new, fresh service comes along.

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[Japamerican]

Facebook won't crash as quickly as MySpace...if it crashes. It has become a household utility of the 21st century such as gas and electric.

The one HUGE flaw that MySpace (and every other site like it) had was urging people to make up usernames. Most people on Facebook use their real names and are therefore tied to that account til death or marriage do them part.

Who says a better site can't come along and make you use your real name? Well, they can. BUT, Facebook is now tied into every site out there. It's hard to come across a website now that doesn't have at least a Facebook "like" button. Once people are 20% into building a site, they usually start up a Facebook page and add buttons to connect them with Facebook.

MySpace never evolved. Rarely would you see changes. Facebook owns their users, and whether we admit it or not, we like to be owned and bitch-slapped by sites.

Spank me.

[Bill Rini]

Facebook won't crash as quickly as MySpace...if it crashes. It has become a household utility of the 21st century such as gas and electric.

The one HUGE flaw that MySpace (and every other site like it) had was urging people to make up usernames. Most people on Facebook use their real names and are therefore tied to that account til death or marriage do them part.

Who says a better site can't come along and make you use your real name? Well, they can. BUT, Facebook is now tied into every site out there. It's hard to come across a website now that doesn't have at least a Facebook "like" button. Once people are 20% into building a site, they usually start up a Facebook page and add buttons to connect them with Facebook.

MySpace never evolved. Rarely would you see changes. Facebook owns their users, and whether we admit it or not, we like to be owned and bitch-slapped by sites.

Spank me.

Yeah, but you could make a similar argument for AOL and Yahoo (or Excite, Lycos, and a whole host of other sites). Though they all used usernames, they were the 800 lb gorilla at one point. Twenty years ago people thought AOL was the internet. And although Yahoo never gained traction in Thailand like it did in the US and Europe, Yahoo was the defacto search engine until Google showed up. Now they're struggling and going through CEO's more often that Thailand goes through PM's.

I agree, it won't be easy but I think there is a certain dynamic which makes switching technologies easier as more and more people use the internet. It's more mainstream. So, if BoobBook comes out tomorrow and is way cooler than Facebook it'll be in newspapers, magazines, television, etc. And if they take a bite into Facebook that'll be reported in the mainstream media too. That raises awareness to an alternative which gets more people to sign up and spend time on BoobBook that they would otherwise spend on Facebook. If BoobBook can hit a certain critical mass, people will have a FB and BB account and slowly migrate from FB to BB.

And, at some point, people are going to demand that their Facebook data be portable. As people become more and more attached to Facebook they're sharing more and more data which they don't want to lose. As soon as they allow you to export your data, it'll be much easier for someone to come along and steal away users since you can move over to their site with all of your data.

Also, in terms of what you're saying about everyone having an account, there's a difference between having a Facebook account and using Facebook. I've had a Facebook account for years but I rarely used it until the last 2 or 3 years. I use it more often now because so many people are on it but if Facebook started losing people to a rival service or the "fad" of Facebook passes and people quit using it like crack monkeys, I would end up using it less too. I still have a MySpace account (I think). That doesn't mean I used it.

[Stramash]

Google plus was launched as the rocket of future competition but has to date spluttered as a wet fart of mediocrity.

I don't think FB will fail the way Myspazz or Bebo has but it could hit a wall. The whole Timeline saga seems to be a growing wave of dissent and I do think it may lose FB users...but not in any significant numbers until there is a viable alternative, and that's going to take a lot to do.

[CiaranM]

Also, in terms of what you're saying about everyone having an account, there's a difference between having a Facebook account and using Facebook. I've had a Facebook account for years but I rarely used it until the last 2 or 3 years. I use it more often now because so many people are on it but if Facebook started losing people to a rival service or the "fad" of Facebook passes and people quit using it like crack monkeys, I would end up using it less too. I still have a MySpace account (I think). That doesn't mean I used it.

the thing is FB has such a massive % of internet users signed up already .... and (it would appear) that quite a lot of the signed up users r active and visible !! also FB encourages interaction between friends and ppl with large friends list (just about every-fucking-body) are going to be reluctant to give up that and start from scratch again !!!

i think it's going to be very difficult for a new kid on the block to eat in significantly to FBs membership .... not impossible though ... just very very difficult !!

[Japamerican]

Google plus was launched as the rocket of future competition but has to date spluttered as a wet fart of mediocrity.

I don't think FB will fail the way Myspazz or Bebo has but it could hit a wall. The whole Timeline saga seems to be a growing wave of dissent and I do think it may lose FB users...but not in any significant numbers until there is a viable alternative, and that's going to take a lot to do.

I personally love Timeline. I know only two other people who agree with me 100% on that, but such is life. I think they are smart with this slow roll-out thing as well. People have been getting Timeline for 8 months or so already...imagine if they did it all in one fast wave? Holy shit.

Timeline is good for Facebook because it helps with the whole stalker thing. It makes it much easier for people to stalk people, including themselves. I honestly don't do it, but I think that was one of the reasons behind this idea.

The reason I love it is because...ok, I like to stalk myself. Forget that last paragraph I wrote. It's cool to scroll through a few years of your life in a matter of 30 seconds. I appreciate Bill's points on how other sites can and will absorb all of Facebook's info and take over the social networking industry, but it's just not going to happen anytime soon. By anytime soon I mean before December 21st, 2030.

[Japamerican]

Side note: Interesting to see that there are no Thai replies yet. I'll sit and wonder to myself as to why, but I'd like to hear from the Thais as well.

[CiaranM]

although FB being valued at more than 100 billion dollars is fucking insane !!! it's a fucking website for christs sake !!!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ors?intcmp=239
Facebook raises float price after being 'swamped' by investors

Price hiked to $34-$38 a share – valuing social network at $104.2bn and the most expensive US company to go public

[Japamerican]

although FB being valued at more than 100 billion dollars is fucking insane !!! it's a fucking website for christs sake !!!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ors?intcmp=239
Facebook raises float price after being 'swamped' by investors

Price hiked to $34-$38 a share – valuing social network at $104.2bn and the most expensive US company to go public

It's a fucking website that connects almost all companies, organizations, and governments...not to mention over 2 billion people around the world!

[CiaranM]

It's a fucking website that connects almost all companies, organizations, and governments...not to mention over 2 billion people around the world!

2 billion ppl !!! well ... if u say so !!!

however more than 100 billion dollars seems a lot for a website that's "a passing fad" and that doesn't appear to make that much money ... from the linked article !!

"Facebook made $3.7bn in revenue and $1bn in profits last year, but both were down in the first quarter compared with the Christmas period, a drop attributed to seasonal trends in advertising. Facebook declined to comment."