Political Turmoil in Thailand?
Just got this out of Bloomberg. It will be interesting to see how the court will rule....Thailand Braces for Court Ruling, Further Unrest (Update1)
By En-Lai Yeoh and Beth JinksMay 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Thai government's effort to destroy the political power of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra may worsen the country's political instability. Nine judges appointed by the military-backed government will rule tomorrow on whether Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai and four other parties should be dissolved for violating election laws last year, and may bar about 160 politicians from elections for five years. That could spark mass protests against the government, whose policies such as capital controls and tighter foreign ownership laws have eroded the hopes of investors and Thaksin opponents who initially welcomed the coup of last September. It would also make a return to democracy, with elections promised for December, difficult. ``The decision on the possible dissolution of the two main political parties, whichever way it goes, has the potential to destabilize the country,'' said Francesca Lawe-Davies, a Southeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group. On the other hand, a verdict clearing Thai Rak Thai and the opposition Democrat Party, which deny breaking election laws in an April 2006 snap poll, could also cause problems for the junta. ``If the court acquits the parties, particularly Thai Rak Thai, it would erode the justification of the coup, further weakening the position of the interim government,'' she said. Worried About Thaksin Since seizing power, Thailand's junta has accused Thaksin of corruption and abuse of power, has sought to prevent his return to the country, and admitted its fear of his party's popular support. Thaksin's comeback ``is our main concern,'' junta Secretary-General General Winai Phattiyakul said Sept. 29, adding that a ruling against his party ``may be one of the measures to prevent the return of the huge popular vote for Thai Rak Thai.'' Junta-appointed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont cut short an official visit to China this week to return to Bangkok after King Bhumibol Adulyadej made a rare public warning last week that ``any ruling'' will cause trouble. More than 10,000 soldiers and police have been deployed in Bangkok to maintain order, said Sansern Kaewkamnerd, a spokesman for the National Security Council, or junta. Checkpoints have been set up to prevent people from the provinces moving to the city, he told reporters today. `Everybody Is Watching' ``It is the biggest concern for every businessman including me. Everybody is watching this court decision,'' TMB Bank Pcl President Subhak Siwaraksa said yesterday. ``It will be a great relief if the court decision comes out in a compromise for everybody. But it will be worrisome if the decision creates new confrontation in the country.'' King Bhumibol told a group of senior judges including some from the country's Constitutional Court that political parties ``must exist,'' in a speech last week that was his first on politics in 13 months. ``If what they did was wrong, there will still be trouble on either ruling, for political parties to be dissolved or to continue their existence,'' the King said in the speech, which was televised nationally. ``Any ruling will create trouble and damage. I will also be in trouble.'' Leaders of Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat party have called on their supporters to stay calm. ``We urge them, whatever the outcome, to respect the decision,'' Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said. ``It's clear that the majority of Thai people want to see stability.'' Elections Without Parties? An eruption of political violence ``would certainly call into question the election date,'' said Abhisit, leader of Thailand's oldest political party. If the court dissolved the parties, the December elections would be meaningless, he said. ``A verdict that would put 160 leading politicians out of the picture makes it very difficult to imagine what kind of meaning the elections would have for the people,'' he said. The Democrats boycotted last year's election, and are accused of preventing parties from contesting. Thai Rak Thai party members are accused of paying the other smaller political parties to run in that election. Billionaire businessman Thaksin, who won landslide election victories in 2001 and again in 2005, is in exile in London and has denied all the charges against him, and said that his political career is over.
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