Jump to content

Blog Cosmo

Sign in to follow this  
  • entries
    77
  • comments
    0
  • views
    1,117

Thaksin's case.

Sign in to follow this  
Cosmo

254 views

This is just my opinion. Today's ruling on the Thaksin case will have ramifications in the financial sector of Thailand.Basically, the government's case is that Thaksin whilst in office as Prime Minister used his position to favour the company his children and relatives held shares in - Shin Corp.  Some of the facts about Shin Corp share price gains:Shin Corp shares gained some 121 percent between the period of Feb 9, 2001, when Thaksin took office to when he sold it on Jan 23 2006.By comparison, the average gained for shares on the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand) was 128 percent for the same period (Bloomberg).Hardly an outstanding result for Shin Corp - not like Siam Cement Pcl, which gained a staggering 717 percent over the same period.In my humble opinion, it is very hard to argue that he did something extraordinary (through policy settings) to benefit Shin Corp to the detriment of others.   Afterall, the price gains on Shin Corp shares during that time was in line with the average gain of shares on the SET over the same period.  I am sure many here feels different and I, like many, expect the court will find a way to rule that way too -  given the change in political power over the last year.  I would be very surprised if they ruled in Thaksin's favour.Lets hope the financial markets have priced in an adverse finding, otherwise the SET and the Thai baht will be falling.Ah, another thing I forgot to add, if they ruled against Shin Corp, will the other shareholders in Shin Corp (who held 51% of the company) forced to give back all their gains?Afterall, Thaksin's family only owned 49%.
Sign in to follow this  


0 Comments


Recommended Comments

This is just my opinion. Today's ruling on the Thaksin case will have ramifications in the financial sector of Thailand.Basically, the government's case is that Thaksin whilst in office as Prime Minister used his position to favour the company his children and relatives held shares in - Shin Corp.  Some of the facts about Shin Corp share price gains:Shin Corp shares gained some 121 percent between the period of Feb 9, 2001, when Thaksin took office to when he sold it on Jan 23 2006.By comparison, the average gained for shares on the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand) was 128 percent for the same period (Bloomberg).Hardly an outstanding result for Shin Corp - not like Siam Cement Pcl, which gained a staggering 717 percent over the same period.In my humble opinion, it is very hard to argue that he did something extraordinary (through policy settings) to benefit Shin Corp to the detriment of others.   Afterall, the price gains on Shin Corp shares during that time was in line with the average gain of shares on the SET over the same period.  I am sure many here feels different and I, like many, expect the court will find a way to rule that way too -  given the change in political power over the last year.  I would be very surprised if they ruled in Thaksin's favour.Lets hope the financial markets have priced in an adverse finding, otherwise the SET and the Thai baht will be falling.Ah, another thing I forgot to add, if they ruled against Shin Corp, will the other shareholders in Shin Corp (who held 51% of the company) forced to give back all their gains?Afterall, Thaksin's family only owned 49%.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Its all crooked money, made by bribery, inside knowledge and corruption, I just hope it all gets put to a good cause, and not sneaked away into another back pocket or 20.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Thailand spends a huge amount of money every year on education. Almost none of that money actually makes it to where it needs to go. Spending Thaksin's money on education would just mean new cars and houses for a load of corrupt businessmen/administrators/civil servants. Yes the education system needs to be reformed, but that won't happen until the government is reformed.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Si6: I am not trying to take sides here...but just think for a minute the ramification of this decision.

If you spent most of your life building up a business and suddenly the government takes it all away - how would you feel?

I know it is not the same as for Thaksin and other polictician in Thailand, but still, these people had spent many years of blood, sweat and tears and LOTS of their OWN money to build up the business (even with corrupt contracts).

And yes, this court decison will be a political one, just like political court decisions when Thaksin was in power (same same).

But this decision will be widely scrutinised by both local and Especially foreign investors in Thailand.

Its impact will be felt more than in Thailand.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Cosmo, you are obviously taking sides here, as you have throughout the whole Thaksin mess. You have a right take whichever side you want, but when you can't be honest about what you're doing, why should anyone trust what you have to say, especially as most of your "facts" are just plain wrong.

The heart of the prosecution's case is not the rise in Shin Corp's share price. There are several conflict of issues raised in its case.

One of the most prominent is that Thaksin changed the laws on concessions, fees and taxes for the telecom sector. The prosecution contends that he gave his company, and the other established telecom players, a huge tax break, and in doing so deprived the government of billions of baht of revenue it should have gotten from Shin Corp and the others.

Imagine that. A Prime Minister who owns a telecoms company passing an executive decree to give his telecoms company a tax break worth billions - billions that could have gone to the state to pay for education, land reform, etc.

It's up to the court to decide whether that is a conflict of interest here in Thailand or not.

Do you think it would be a conflict of interest in your country?

It's just one of four or five conflicts of interests/instances of policy corruption the prosecution has cited.

The market here has already priced in this court case, so your doom and gloom scenario won't happen unless violence erupts. And foreign investors don't give a damn about this case and won't make their decisions on investing based upon it. They care far more about what's happening at Map Ta Phut.

The court decision has no ramifications for those who have spent their lives building their business AND WHO HAVEN'T BROKEN ANY LAWS.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Oh thanks Loburt for putting me in the Thaksin camp...I am expecting my 300 bahts or is 500 bahts cheque to arrive soon now.

Any way, I am quite sure I have said he was corrupt many times, like many other Thai politician before and after him....and I would challenge you to provide me information that stated otherwise.

And I do know about the Thaksin case quite well as I do provide advice on investments.

I don't think I am being alarmist in any way.- I did state that I hope the market have priced in an adverse decision.

Not unlike your claim of Airport sinking, planes crashing, etc....all because of Thaksin?!?

Unlike you, I believe most, if not all of them (thai politicians) are corrupt - it is a matter of how corrupt.

But lets wait for the decision...any minutes now.

Share this comment


Link to comment

I've always admitted to not liking Thaksin, and it's obvious I don't. But I also did not write that he is guilty, nor that he caused the airport to "sink" or "planes to crash", nor that he never did anything good.

Unlike you, who have consistently excused everything wrong he ever did (well, they are all corrupt so he did nothing wrong), but say you're impartial. You're clearly not, so be honest about it.

If you know about the Thaksin case "quite well" why is the information you posted slanted and wrong? I feel sorry for any investors you're advising.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Loburt: can you provide me information on where I have posted "wrong" information regarding Mr Thaksin?!?

When people say he is corrupt, I say others within the system are too.

You may have interpreted this as a defence of Thaksin, but it is no more than a comparison.

And I have never excused anything he has done - i said this decision will be a political court decision, just like political court decisions were handed down when Thaksin was in power - same same.

Does this excuse him for his corrupt practices?!?

Only you have interpreted that!!!

Even in this journal, I have said he had gained through corrupt practices, but so have all the other politicians.

You have been in Thailand long enough and you know that too!!!

Just imagine prosecuting him (only) on corrupt LAND and BUSINESS deals when most of the generals, police and politicians have engaged in this corrupt practice too (maybe not to his extent)....Comon!!!

You don't see them on the docks - do you?

Lets face it, they all need the money to live a good life and get re-elected!!!

And as for my investors, maybe you can advise them better - wanna give it a try???

Share this comment


Link to comment

I don't understand the point... Thaksin was (is) corrupt.... Other people are corrupt... So Thaksin shouldn't be prosecuted for corruption?

The share price is irrelevant... if market forces had been allowed to control the share price WITHOUT government help through corruption, perhaps it would have gone backwards.

The 76 billion is not Thaksin's fortune. It is PART of his fortune which may have been accrued illegally.

If the courts find that it was accrued legally, it should be confiscated.

I noticed that recently there have been more actions against corruption... policemen accepting bribes for promotions, land encroachment prosecutions, opening old (Saudi) murder cases.

I feel like Thailand is beginning to take a stance. If Thaksin is the first big name to be taken down, I'm all for it.

Long may it continue... (still no decision)

Share this comment


Link to comment

English Bob: if i go on and state some more facts, it might be interpreted as a defence of Mr. Thaksin.

But let me just make this point - 7 YEARS BEFORE HE TOOK OFFICE, Mr Thaksin HAD declared in the public registry that he was worth some 60 BILLION bahts (Bloomberg).

Yup, even BEFORE he was able to WIELD significant influence in government, he was worth some 60 BILLION bahts!!!

So, should the court just give him back his 60 BILLION BAHTS before he took office???

And yes, he might have lost in some investments and gained in others - we all know that is the nature of the market.

And yeah, this sound like I am defending him, but it is just the fact - it is on public record - anyone can find it.

Having said that, I personally believe most (if not all) thai politicians including Mr Thaksin was (is) corrupt. I don't doubt it or dispute it.

I just find it a bit ironic when only one person - Mr Thaksin and his family get prosecuted, while all the others get a "get out of jail free" card.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Thaksin's 60 billion baht is probably part of the billions of baht he moved out of the country and didn't pay taxes on. The 76 billion is only part of his wealth.

"Even in this journal, I have said he had gained through corrupt practices, but so have all the other politicians.

You have been in Thailand long enough and you know that too!!!"

I've lived in Thailand long enough to know that many politicians are corrupt, but not all politicians.

I guess, using the logic of your statement, I could also conclude that all investment advisers are thieving con men and criminals like the ones we saw at Goldman Sachs, AIG and the others.

You have been an investment adviser long enough and you know that too!!!

Share this comment


Link to comment

Oh, and I do remember the Democrat Party Secretary General, Sanan Kachornparast, being found guilty of corruption by the Constitutional Court and banned from politics for five years.

So much for "only one person - Mr Thaksin and his family (wouldn't that be more than one person?) get prosecuted..."

Share this comment


Link to comment

Loburt: why does everything have to get so personal!!!

You know I can make the same analogy of Reporters too.

But where does that get us - another slanging match.

So typical of these TF discussions.

I am more than happy to debate with you about a person's wealth (60 billion bahts) and the difficulities of moving such a large amount of money out of the country (if it can ever be realised in the first place), but it will be futile, you will only interpret as a defence of Mr Thaksin.

Let the decision of the court stand - Mr Thaksin is guilty of corruption any way - I don't doubt it.

Share this comment


Link to comment

No result yet.... Beginning to give the verdict now... first judge (of nine) says that Thaksin is guilty of concealing assets. That is a precursor to confiscating the money, but it's not the only one.

Share this comment


Link to comment

Yeah I've been searching online for the results. If someone can keep this updated that'd be great.

Anyone have any ideas on the reaction to the findings/results?

Share this comment


Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...