Exchange Rate

[Stramash]

If you are currently holding any GBP, you are best to hold on to them till about mid June. That's the earliest you will see any real improvement in the pound.

[DANNO]

Leaves the US, still mighty or so some think. Well, if they finally manage to wage war on a country small and ill-defended enough that they can actually win (where is a Communist uprising in Grenada when one needs one) within a Presidents term maybe the Dollar will stop heading South. But I wouldn't bet on that.

:roll:

Yes we haven't a really good war since the 1940's ...No good Commies to be found anymore --hell the PRC is bank and so we cannot go after them ----I'll talk to Mr. Obama, mention that the economy stimulas is just East of Koln ! :wink:

Well the 3% drop just this weak (THB / USD) just seemed sudden and unusual

I'll talk way off base----(because I know nothing about such matters)

:arrow: somewhere, someone's got the "Thai Fed" pulling strings --and lining their suit pockets with short-term profits...

But I would think both for tourism and exports, during the next 6-18 months, it would be advantagious for the THB to be not so strong as it is this week

(say 35 to 1 $ )

...a little speculation without risking any real money is fun, I think!

[CiaranM]

Im not ok with GBP !

I just borrowed money from my sister in UK 2000GBP. She said no matter how much in THB I could get she will take it back only 100k when we made the deal exchange rate was about 53-54b/1p and money supposed to be in my bank account this week checked this morning, its 49.09THB / 1 GBP

:cry:

I got 51thb to the GBP when I went. This rate stayed for a good few months. But as Danno says, its about timing. Im keeping an eye out already for my next trip.

from memory (which is never my strong point on a saturday morning) the poundwas in and around 65 baht + until about 2 years ago !!! luckily i get paid in thai baht now ... but it has made thailand a LOT more expensive for tourists or ex-pats paid in pounds or euros !!

[Hobbes]

If you are currently holding any GBP, you are best to hold on to them till about mid June. That's the earliest you will see any real improvement in the pound.

Here is an eternal optimist...

:wink:

[DANNO]

If you are currently holding any GBP, you are best to hold on to them till about mid June. That's the earliest you will see any real improvement in the pound.

Here is an eternal optimist...

:wink:

I was watching one of the "taking heads " on TV (experts) a few months ago. They said that the the Euro and GBP would suffer like the dollar and as the American markets did in 2008-2009--- just delay inthe timing because of the different currency controls (or lack of control taken) ---could this be the predicted hit?

Iain why do think the Pound will rebound around that period???

[Dave40]

The US Dollar will rise against most major currencies when the Fed starts to lift interest rates (towards the later half of 2010) and the economy recovers, that's what the experts say, but who really knows!!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

[Hobbes]

If you are currently holding any GBP, you are best to hold on to them till about mid June. That's the earliest you will see any real improvement in the pound.

Here is an eternal optimist...

:wink:

I was watching one of the "taking heads " on TV (experts) a few months ago. They said that the the Euro and GBP would suffer like the dollar and as the American markets did in 2008-2009--- just delay inthe timing because of the different currency controls (or lack of control taken) ---could this be the predicted hit?

Iain why do think the Pound will rebound around that period???

I think the Euro really has more to do with the hight debt/deficit by Greece (and potential some other members like Spain) and speculators having a field day betting on Greece going bust and piling the pressure on the Euro. Obviously to those clever people in the financial sector this was known to happen (especially the folks at Goldman-Sachs helping the Greek governments to fudge the figures and hide their debts for years). :roll:

As for Iain's optimism in the Pound, well, he is Scottish and they do probably belief they can still win the 6 Nations tournament and play in a football world cup final as well. :wink:

He is referring to the fact that there will be a general election in May. Strangely enough the perceived uncertainty as to who will win this election and form the next government (as if that REALLY would make much of a difference :roll: ) and the prospect of a hung parliament (now, I am a fairly peace-loving kind of fella but the image of the Westminster lot lining the streets dancing the hangman's jig does appeal to my darker side :twisted: ) seems to have send the Pound into a bit of tailspin. Nothing about which will be done until some new/old/different/same-same type of government is taking care of business (or not, which is the more likely scenario) sometime in June.

[Stramash]

If you are currently holding any GBP, you are best to hold on to them till about mid June. That's the earliest you will see any real improvement in the pound.

Here is an eternal optimist...

:wink:

I was watching one of the "taking heads " on TV (experts) a few months ago. They said that the the Euro and GBP would suffer like the dollar and as the American markets did in 2008-2009--- just delay inthe timing because of the different currency controls (or lack of control taken) ---could this be the predicted hit?

Iain why do think the Pound will rebound around that period???

I think the Euro really has more to do with the hight debt/deficit by Greece (and potential some other members like Spain) and speculators having a field day betting on Greece going bust and piling the pressure on the Euro. Obviously to those clever people in the financial sector this was known to happen (especially the folks at Goldman-Sachs helping the Greek governments to fudge the figures and hide their debts for years). :roll:

As for Iain's optimism in the Pound, well, he is Scottish and they do probably belief they can still win the 6 Nations tournament and play in a football world cup final as well. :wink:

He is referring to the fact that there will be a general election in May. Strangely enough the perceived uncertainty as to who will win this election and form the next government (as if that REALLY would make much of a difference :roll: ) and the prospect of a hung parliament (now, I am a fairly peace-loving kind of fella but the image of the Westminster lot lining the streets dancing the hangman's jig does appeal to my darker side :twisted: ) seems to have send the Pound into a bit of tailspin. Nothing about which will be done until some new/old/different/same-same type of government is taking care of business (or not, which is the more likely scenario) sometime in June.

It's not so much optimism Jens, though I have to agree wholeheartedly on the gallows scenario with you.

Over the last few months, the UK, as with many other countries, has slowly been clawing its way back from recession. The uncertainties of who will govern after the election in turn produces uncertainties as to how that will affect the rate of growth/regrowth. Given that some of the smaller parties may hold the key to power, and given that they make demands that will affect the spending policies of whoever gets the keys to Number 10, this is one of the main factors affecting the current GBP performance.

As to optimism (unfounded) over six nations/world cup, we are having a national holiday to celebrate the friendly win over the Czech Republic!!!

And no Tonia, a hung parliament does not mean that all the MPs have huge c*cks. :wink:

[Exploring]

lalalala...Hes just happy to be going home.lol

Think hes just saying that hes gutted he missed it when either the dollar or baht was doing well.

It says he edited it once, I think he needs to come back and edit it again. :wink:

There is nothing wrong with the contents,besides my english skills.Also,It seems that financial or economics things are pretty difficult for some people to understand correctly.

[Hobbes]

lalalala...Hes just happy to be going home.lol

Think hes just saying that hes gutted he missed it when either the dollar or baht was doing well.

It says he edited it once, I think he needs to come back and edit it again. :wink:

There is nothing wrong with the contents,besides my english skills.Also,It seems that financial or economics things are pretty difficult for some people to understand correctly.

Nothing wrong with your English skills. I don't think economic and financial matters are difficult to understand, its rather the contrary that they are actually pretty straight forward and logical once you ignore all that 'expert' and 'analyst' white noise. It is just that those working in the field like to make it all sound terribly complicated and sophisticated. Perhaps that is to compensate for being involved in a convoluted and legal variation of a Ponzi scheme or to provide some thinly veiled justification for those humongous bonus packages. Either way, anyone capable of sitting through endless seeming lectures on statistics without falling asleep or frying his brains on Amphetamines trying to stay awake will do just fine being a high-rolling analyst, broker, investment banker or venture capitalist of the future. :wink:

[robbie36]

PS . Bank of Thailand comes out with not intervene that is why we have this kind of value though.My concern is that ,nornally they will support exporter guys.. but clearly not this time.What wrong with thai exchange rate mechanise, or they want to suppy dollar for this time?

You are not watching the BoT's balance sheet. They have been intervening very heavily but there problem is they have basically run out of money and additional sterilization is counter-productive.

In 1997 the BoT spent US$32bn defending the baht from devaluation, they have spent US$70bn trying to stop it appreciating over the last 14 months. Basically people are going short dollar long baht (partly as a RMB play) and the BoT has been going short baht. They actually have 19% of the baht money supply sitting on their balance sheet doing nothing (for Brits and Americans effectively reverse QE). (Theoretically that points to a 19% undervalued currency or 19% suppressed inflation.)

Now the basic policy to quote Korn is to sterilize capital inflows until the costs of doing so outweigh the benefits of having a competitive currency (basically the baht is pegged to the Yuan). So dollars come in and the BoT issues bonds about Bt600bn a month to soak up excess money. Their idea is that the money they lose short baht is made up by good exports through the trade balance.

But going short baht is an expensive business (luckily the BoT is not mandated to make money) and the more you play the more it costs them. And when you say you will carry on doing it until the costs outweigh the benefits then you are a hedge funds dream because you just see how much you have to put in before the currency is allowed to appreciate.

And it is so expensive now they really cant play much anymore. There is a fair chance that the Yuan will be revalued, they have already lost about US$7.5bn over the last 4 months, if the baht was to rise another 10% the total costs would be around US$21bn which is as a percent of GDP is fairly close to how much the US banking crisis cost the US and considerably more than the BoT lost in 1997. Thailand has larger forex reserves as a percent of GDP than China.

Funnily enough the one thing that has stopped this trade getting totally out of hand is that many hedge funds have believed that Korn might introduce forex controls when, in reality, he is the most adamant person against them. If you want to blame someone it is China, you cant speculate against the Yuan they have capital controls so people punt the baht Ringgit etc.

[Exploring]

Thanks, I had been worried about my english skills for a moment.And, yes you know too well about why we make it look " complicated" for a reason.I hope that you are not one of us because it will assure that these things are understandable easily :wink:

[Exploring]

@robbie36

It is very impressive about knowing thailand that well,in case, if you are not "thailand researcher or lecturer"And, you give me some new issues that are beneficial indeed. By the way, I just got news from insider who have been mornitor exchange rate and capital inflow that it is simple( which obviously I ignored it) It is nothing fancy about baht appreciated this time because if you guys are normal stock investor, then you can see NET FOREIGN BUYER into Stock exchange of thailand. It is a" good "new though if they don't rapidly speculated.

[robbie36]

@robbie36

It is very impressive about knowing thailand that well,in case, if you are not "thailand researcher or lecturer"And, you give me some new issues that are beneficial indeed. By the way, I just got news from insider who have been mornitor exchange rate and capital inflow that it is simple( which obviously I ignored it) It is nothing fancy about baht appreciated this time because if you guys are normal stock investor, then you can see NET FOREIGN BUYER into Stock exchange of thailand. It is a" good "new though if they don't rapidly speculated.

Actually the two are related. When you begin to reach the limits of sterilization you really have two choices appreciate your currency or expand your money supply which is inflationary. Both make the baht less attractive. So a good way of doing the trade is to put your long position in baht into stocks as they basically benefit first from excess monetary growth. Also forex controls (not that I think there will be any) wouldnt effect the stockmarket.

Net foreign inflows to the stockmarket are published daily in the Bangkok Post.

[Exploring]

@robbie36

It is very impressive about knowing thailand that well,in case, if you are not "thailand researcher or lecturer"And, you give me some new issues that are beneficial indeed. By the way, I just got news from insider who have been mornitor exchange rate and capital inflow that it is simple( which obviously I ignored it) It is nothing fancy about baht appreciated this time because if you guys are normal stock investor, then you can see NET FOREIGN BUYER into Stock exchange of thailand. It is a" good "new though if they don't rapidly speculated.

Actually the two are related. When you begin to reach the limits of sterilization you really have two choices appreciate your currency or expand your money supply which is inflationary. Both make the baht less attractive. So a good way of doing the trade is to put your long position in baht into stocks as they basically benefit first from excess monetary growth. Also forex controls (not that I think there will be any) wouldnt effect the stockmarket.

Net foreign inflows to the stockmarket are published daily in the Bangkok Post.

You siad it correctly that net forieng inflows pubilshed daily on newspaper,but

their are many factors effect on how exchange rate changes,and that you will never so sure if you are not the one who monitors the flows whether which one

outweights others in the currency mechanism.Talking base on theory is like when we were doing paper exams on testing day which is opposite to the real world that you have to choose the best one that fits scenario the most.

[Wicked]

its going the good way again, if u know u in 2009 1 EURO = 52 THB and last month 1 EURO = 38 THB

Today: 1 EURO = 42,14 THB

lets hope it keeps increasing

[yamahacrasher]

Can't the USD get a bit stronger please? :-) I'll be recieving a USD salary from October, so I hope it doesn't slide under 30...

[Teddy]

Yea its slowly creeping back up...Last month I struggled to get 45 to the £, but now its up at 48.5. Am hoping for 50 by next month.....pleeeease.