Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
beej

Financial Melt Down Part 2 ?

Recommended Posts

So I've got my filthy dirty coin pot out to play again as stock prices start to plummet on fears the the European Economy is faltering, Greece just proper f**ked things but was that just the tip of yet another iceberg, are Germany hiding a serious banking problems, pay freezes/5% cuts across the UK, Ash clouds, BP oil spills, unemployment.

Its the summer, and the World Cups on, shouldn't we all be happy and the economy booming? Or will the big problems hit when the winter comes around?

Thoughts anyone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's coming. All the signs are there...especially in the U.S.

Burst of the housing bubble, continued high unemployment, devaluation of the dollar, etc.

The oil disaster in the gulf isn't going to help either. What happens when the first hurricane comes and sucks up all that oil and spreads it in water supplies and farm land?? Water and food shortages??

MHO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding Germany… It is amazing to see how things developed in the last year..

Once a company/banking deficit of 100mil EUR was gigantic… then they started helping industrial companies with 500 mil, after that a bank needed 3bil EUR to survive. Then guarantee for Greece with 25bil EUR, now a European package for the common currency of 750bil EUR.

Increasing by factor 1000 seems to be normal these days…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Australian dollar has taken a big hit it's fallen 13% since mid April even though our economic fundamentals are all ok, I just have to save a bit more money now for my holiday!!!!! :cry: :cry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm still shocked at the property prices outside of major cities in the U.S. its bloody cheaper than Thailand! A LOT Cheaper.

13 trillion debt as well.

It isnt really cheaper because of the underlying property taxes. Properties can be virtually worthless because the underlying taxes dont justify paying anything for the property.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So I've got my filthy dirty coin pot out to play again as stock prices start to plummet on fears the the European Economy is faltering, Greece just proper f*cked things but was that just the tip of yet another iceberg, are Germany hiding a serious banking problems, pay freezes/5% cuts across the UK, Ash clouds, BP oil spills, unemployment.

Its the summer, and the World Cups on, shouldn't we all be happy and the economy booming? Or will the big problems hit when the winter comes around?

Thoughts anyone?

I find the whole thing incredibly irritating. I am holding buckets of cash that yields nothing and most Governments are trying to render worthless in one way or another. And I cant really think of much to buy.

I quite like US property. I also have a long term belief in Thailand which to an extent even Thais have lost. But the baht didnt fall, the stockmarket didnt fall much so it doesnt look great. However I do see a bit of flexibility and opportunity in Thailand - someone, who a month ago said 1% discount, take it or leave it, is now in the 'please... 10% discount mode.'

The underlying problem is that most assets are discounting negative real rates which is unsustainable.

If you are prepared to make a long term investment buy 100m of beach front land somewhere in Thailand and simply keep it. Beach fronts get developed and spoilt and then move on. And when it gets developed everyone buys tiny plots. So eventually a hotel comes and takes you out.

People have been buying gold because it is a fixed limited resource (that used to used a currency.) The fixed real resource that has value is land (property is generally a crap investment.) And what everyone wants is premium land. Beachfront at Bt2-4m a rai, you simply cant go wrong (well apart from losing Bt2-4m a rai).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I also have a long term belief in Thailand which to an extent even Thais have lost. But the baht didnt fall, the stockmarket didnt fall much so it doesnt look great. However I do see a bit of flexibility and opportunity in Thailand - someone, who a month ago said 1% discount, take it or leave it, is now in the 'please... 10% discount mode.'

The underlying problem is that most assets are discounting negative real rates which is unsustainable.

If you are prepared to make a long term investment buy 100m of beach front land somewhere in Thailand and simply keep it. Beach fronts get developed and spoilt and then move on. And when it gets developed everyone buys tiny plots. So eventually a hotel comes and takes you out.

I dont really worry much about Thailand as I see some more regional opportunities for them.

The next big thing could if be they can establish themselves as No.1 tourist destination for the chinese.

Once the billions of workers can afford to travel, Thailand will be their quickest way to warm climate, palms and beach.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm much in the same boat, a bag of pennies earning nothing in the bank.

Jumped out of the stock market a few months ago and took a handsome profit, but am quite undecided as to wether to try it all over again soon, personally it looks like its got a good drop left in it over the next 12 months, but will wait and see.

Up to the hilt in art investments already.

Property in Thailand feels like its still too expensive (though I do agree beach front land is a good punt).

Property in the U.S is really attractive at the moment, as it is in Italy and a few other european countries, but I need to Pound to pull its boots up a bit first!

aghhhhhhh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm much in the same boat, a bag of pennies earning nothing in the bank.

Jumped out of the stock market a few months ago and took a handsome profit, but am quite undecided as to wether to try it all over again soon, personally it looks like its got a good drop left in it over the next 12 months, but will wait and see.

Up to the hilt in art investments already.

Property in Thailand feels like its still too expensive (though I do agree beach front land is a good punt).

Property in the U.S is really attractive at the moment, as it is in Italy and a few other european countries, but I need to Pound to pull its boots up a bit first!

aghhhhhhh

Need to wait till after the 20th June to see what the pound's chances are for the rest of year.

Anyone want to go halves in a cheap Greek island?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm much in the same boat, a bag of pennies earning nothing in the bank.

Jumped out of the stock market a few months ago and took a handsome profit, but am quite undecided as to wether to try it all over again soon, personally it looks like its got a good drop left in it over the next 12 months, but will wait and see.

Up to the hilt in art investments already.

Property in Thailand feels like its still too expensive (though I do agree beach front land is a good punt).

Property in the U.S is really attractive at the moment, as it is in Italy and a few other european countries, but I need to Pound to pull its boots up a bit first!

aghhhhhhh

Need to wait till after the 20th June to see what the pound's chances are for the rest of year.

Anyone want to go halves in a cheap Greek island?

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the **** out of me and its not getting any better!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm much in the same boat, a bag of pennies earning nothing in the bank.

Jumped out of the stock market a few months ago and took a handsome profit, but am quite undecided as to wether to try it all over again soon, personally it looks like its got a good drop left in it over the next 12 months, but will wait and see.

Up to the hilt in art investments already.

Property in Thailand feels like its still too expensive (though I do agree beach front land is a good punt).

Property in the U.S is really attractive at the moment, as it is in Italy and a few other european countries, but I need to Pound to pull its boots up a bit first!

aghhhhhhh

Need to wait till after the 20th June to see what the pound's chances are for the rest of year.

Anyone want to go halves in a cheap Greek island?

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/en/PropertyDetails.aspx?R=4100002263&se=Google&N=12+149+4294967221&kw=islands+for+sale&No=2&PSeq=0&WT.mc_id=SIRSEMDOMGooLif&gclid=CIuKkobE5aECFRg8lAodwmn0Ig

http://www.privateislandsonline.com/phuket-island.htm

http://www.privateislandsonline.com/rangyai-island-thailand.htm

:shock:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

Dont buy an island. I live mostly in Phuket - it is a big island but I still suffer from island fever.

People can be insular, are there enough restaurants bars clubs. To be honest living on an island - Samui would drive any sane person crazy because it is as though everyone regresses to being back in boarding school.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm much in the same boat, a bag of pennies earning nothing in the bank.

Jumped out of the stock market a few months ago and took a handsome profit, but am quite undecided as to wether to try it all over again soon, personally it looks like its got a good drop left in it over the next 12 months, but will wait and see.

Up to the hilt in art investments already.

Property in Thailand feels like its still too expensive (though I do agree beach front land is a good punt).

Property in the U.S is really attractive at the moment, as it is in Italy and a few other european countries, but I need to Pound to pull its boots up a bit first!

aghhhhhhh

Same, same.

I look at it this way - if you feel that maybe holding cash is the best option, with no yield and incompetent governments, then all other assets must be bloody expensive.

Property is expensive in Thailand. Land not so and real transactions dont happen at offer prices. It is illiquid though so a long term investment.

My basic theory. Is sort of along the lines of sell in May and go away. The very fact that holding cash is so bloody unattractive probably means it might well be the best investment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For all you gents who are holding cash you should be counting yourself very ves lucky that you have not invested it.... most things are back to the level of mid last year. The trough was in March 09. All gains in the last 6 months have been wiped out. Whether it is a GFC2 or a correction from the bubble of the last 6 months remains to be seen. One thing I do know is that if you are holding cash then keep it that way for now. The only people making money atm are short sellers! :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For all you gents who are holding cash you should be counting yourself very ves lucky that you have not invested it.... most things are back to the level of mid last year. The trough was in March 09. All gains in the last 6 months have been wiped out. Whether it is a GFC2 or a correction from the bubble of the last 6 months remains to be seen. One thing I do know is that if you are holding cash then keep it that way for now. The only people making money atm are short sellers! :(

Damn those short sellers :wink: :wink: :wink: :wink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

and if they're right about climate change, you'll be underwater...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

and if they're right about climate change, you'll be underwater...

Not one of those poxy Bahamas lumps of sand, I want me a Jurassic Park style mother ******* jungle islands!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro did it!

Strong Euro Helped Hide Financial Crisis, Says EU Chief

Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Union, has blamed the strength of the euro in recent years for blinding the eurozone to its underlying fiscal problems.

He also criticized financial markets for overreacting to those economic difficulties and being too heavily influenced by “rumors and prejudicesâ€.

He said: “The markets were too indulgent in the first decade, but now they overreact a lot of the time to small incidents.

“What went wrong wasn’t what happened this year. What went wrong was what happened in the first 11 years of the euro’s history. In some ways we were victims of our success.

“The euro became a strong currency with very small interest rate spreads [on government bonds]. It was like some kind of sleeping pill, some kind of drug. We weren’t aware of the underlying problems.â€

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Van Rompuy said that the 16-nation bloc had been on the edge of a breakdown last month that could have caused a world crisis. But European leaders now understood that the way forward was to implement politically unpopular but necessary economic reforms, such as opening up labor markets and raising the retirement age, he said.

He is to chair a summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels on Thursday that will approve a 10-year program for economic reform.

He acknowledged that the markets had played a useful role since the Greek debt crisis erupted last October in identifying weaknesses in eurozone economic governance.

But he fully supported tougher financial market regulation, especially for credit rating agencies and derivatives markets – measures EU authorities are drawing up.

“Most of us are not happy with excessive market developments. But when you look at this in a broader perspective, the markets are sanctioning bad policies, sometimes excessively, disproportionately and based on rumors and prejudices.â€

Asked if he thought markets acted like “packs of wolves†– a term used last month by Anders Org, Sweden’s finance minister – he replied: “It is not in my character to use such words.â€

Mr Van Rompuy said financial markets had contributed to the crisis by being too soft on fiscally irresponsible governments in the years after the euro’s creation in 1999.

He criticized the French and German governments of the early part of the decade for relaxing the stability and growth pact – the ECU's fiscal rulebook – in 2005. “This sent the wrong signal,†he said.

Mr Van Rompuy, 62, said Europe’s biggest challenge was to introduce reforms required to double the ECU's economic growth rate and safeguard its unique blend of vigorous capitalism and a generous welfare state. “The toughest thing now is reforms in the budgetary field and the economy – competitiveness, labor market reforms, the retirement age,†he said.

“Of course, it will be difficult. At certain times there will be social unrest and political opposition to all this. But I know most of the leaders now. They are preparing to take huge risks because they know what is at stake for the eurozone.â€

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37680041

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

and if they're right about climate change, you'll be underwater...

Not one of those poxy Bahamas lumps of sand, I want me a Jurassic Park style mother f*cking jungle islands!

I'm in !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

and if they're right about climate change, you'll be underwater...

Not one of those poxy Bahamas lumps of sand, I want me a Jurassic Park style mother f*cking jungle islands!

if you gots dinosaurs i'm sooooo in. dinosaurs are cool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

No Joke I've been considering getting a bunch of people together for an island, this world scares the sh*t out of me and its not getting any better!

and if they're right about climate change, you'll be underwater...

Not one of those poxy Bahamas lumps of sand, I want me a Jurassic Park style mother f*cking jungle islands!

if you gots dinosaurs i'm sooooo in. dinosaurs are cool.

I already said I was in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...