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Do you Believe in Luck?

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Luck how is it created?. -Go article

There must be luck right? Otherwise, how do you explain winners of million dollar lotteries? Big jackpot winners in casino's. How do you explain folks that have actually won lottery jackpots multiple times?

All you have to do is believe that you are lucky, and have a belief system that allows you to be lucky everyday. This will give you the element that will create good fortune. Right?

Just about everyone I know has some ritual designed to increase luck and bring good fortune. And I know many who will still knock on wood when talking about the good fortune that they've had.

So what do you TFer's think? Does Luck actually exist? If so, share some of your experiences with us. What you think might have been Good Luck or Bad Luck experiences.

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Luck is all bs. People win lotteries because someone has to win. Multiple winners? If there is a one in a trillion chance, there's still a chance.

Luck is all in one's mind. It's how you perceive life and everything that happens to you. Believing in luck is a lot like believing in religion. It's comforting for many people, but there is nothing real about it.

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There is no such thing as luck. There is only probabilities. As long as the odds of something happening are greater than zero that means it can happen and the fact of it happening, no matter how long the odds, does not prove luck.

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Probabilities maybe , but should I win lotto I woulld, given the odds, consider myself to be very "lucky"

Have heard it said; that the harder someone works the luckier they are - perhaps to some degree we make our own luck.

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I feel I was lucky to be born a white male in England.

I see some people who are beautiful, wealthy, intelligent and talented... I think they were born luckier than I.

But I'm grateful I'm not a legless, Cambodian beggar and appreciate my luck.

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Probabilities maybe , but should I win lotto I woulld, given the odds, consider myself to be very "lucky"

Have heard it said; that the harder someone works the luckier they are - perhaps to some degree we make our own luck.

Is it luck? Someone has to win and your chances of winning were the exact same as everyone else's. Besides, lotteries probably have the worst odds of all forms of gambling. That's why they say that the lotto is a tax on people with poor math skills.

As far as the connection between luck and hard work, well, hard work expands your opportunities and thus your chances of success. Again, it's a matter of probability. The harder you work, the more you increase your chances of having a "lucky" moment.

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All you have to do is believe that you are lucky, and have a belief system that allows you to be lucky everyday. This will give you the element that will create good fortune. Right?

Just about everyone I know has some ritual designed to increase luck and bring good fortune. And I know many who will still knock on wood when talking about the good fortune that they've had.

So what do you TFer's think? Does Luck actually exist? If so, share some of your experiences with us. What you think might have been Good Luck or Bad Luck experiences.

Of course I believe in luck.

My nickname has been lucky/luckyphil since early high school. I also use "luckyphil" in my email address since being connected to the net.

I think subconsciously, being called by my nickname and constantly typing "luckyphil" almost everyday, it tends to have a positive effect as I really believe that I'm lucky.

So whenever I approach a new task or tackle a new challenge, the positive feeling or attitude will get better results than having doubt or hesitation :P

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Guest Lollipop

Have no idea what to say about good or bad luck.

I think people say" I'm lucky" when they get what they want and they are happy with it and when they get **** they say " i'm not lucky "

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Probability Vs Luck. Lets take an incident that happened a few years back, and determine if you would class it as probability, or luck. I class it as luck.

A person enters an on-line poker tournament for $40US, and wins it. This qualifies him to enter the next level of the tournament structure, and he wins that. Both these tournaments were against 1000+ players. This gives him an entry into the World of Series of Poker main event, at which point it is discovered that he has never played live tournament poker for money before in his life (that being he has never played against real live players at a poker table for money before, he has only played on-line against players that can not see him, or him see them) he wins this tournament for $2.5 million US against 3000+ players (with all the professional players you see on TV entered). Was this luck? I think so. He defied the odds too many times on the different hands that he won for it not to have a big margin of luck in play.

Now given that this player is not that good of a player, and only won one other tournament after this (this I would class as probability). Was he lucky, or was it just the astomonical level of the odds catching up with him?

I think it was luck, because he doesn't have the talent. He has entered this same tournament after he won it, and has never made it past the first day. If he had any talent at all he would have made it past the first day at some point.

You can say it's probability, but for it to happen again the odds are just to great, but that is also something that is built into any model of statistics, and probability, the margin of error. It's not an exact science. It has the element of luck built into it.

When the probability of something happening excedes your lifetime for it to happen to you (like winning the lottery by playing the same numbers over, and over). You will not live long enough for the probability of you winning because you play every game to be a factor. If you win, it is luck. The probabilities say that for this many plays someone will win, but probability has no name attached to who will win. If you win it was luck.

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Probability Vs Luck. Lets take an incident that happened a few years back, and determine if you would class it as probability, or luck. I class it as luck.

A person enters an on-line poker tournament for $40US, and wins it. This qualifies him to enter the next level of the tournament structure, and he wins that. Both these tournaments were against 1000+ players. This gives him an entry into the World of Series of Poker main event, at which point it is discovered that he has never played live tournament poker for money before in his life (that being he has never played against real live players at a poker table for money before, he has only played on-line against players that can not see him, or him see them) he wins this tournament for $2.5 million US against 3000+ players (with all the professional players you see on TV entered). Was this luck? I think so. He defied the odds too many times on the different hands that he won for it not to have a big margin of luck in play.

Now given that this player is not that good of a player, and only won one other tournament after this (this I would class as probability). Was he lucky, or was it just the astomonical level of the odds catching up with him?

I think it was luck, because he doesn't have the talent. He has entered this same tournament after he won it, and has never made it past the first day. If he had any talent at all he would have made it past the first day at some point.

You can say it's probability, but for it to happen again the odds are just to great, but that is also something that is built into any model of statistics, and probability, the margin of error. It's not an exact science. It has the element of luck built into it.

When the probability of something happening excedes your lifetime for it to happen to you (like winning the lottery by playing the same numbers over, and over). You will not live long enough for the probability of you winning because you play every game to be a factor. If you win, it is luck. The probabilities say that for this many plays someone will win, but probability has no name attached to who will win. If you win it was luck.

First off, I assume you're talking about Chris Moneymaker (yes, that is his real last name, what are the odds? LOL).

Second, everything has a mathematical probability. It's wrong to say that if the odds are 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1 against something happening that it will never happen in your lifetime. That 1 chance in whatever that number is, can come your next try or may never happen in your lifetime. You seem to be calling that luck when in actuality it is pretty simple math.

Likewise, having worked at two of the largest online poker sites where, literally, billions of hands are dealt every year you can see the power of large numbers. Think about it, if the card room deals a billion hands a year and the odds of something happening are a billion to one, it's expected to happen at least once a year even though it may never happen in a given player's lifetime.

Now, going back, again, to your Chris Moneymaker analogy, you string together all of these facts as if they're cumulative. When he won the $40 satellite his odds of winning the next satellite are the same as if he had just bought in with his own cash.

You also have to remember that satellite tournaments have a flat prize pool. Instead of one player winning a large percentage of the prize pool the prize package is the same for all winners.

I also think you're mistaken on that second satellite. From what I've read that was a $600 buy-in tournament. If there were 1000+ players that means that they would have paid out 60+ WSOP packages. Places 1 - 3 paid a WSOP package and fourth was $8,000. I remember this because Moneymaker almost dumped in 4th so he could take the cash instead of the WSOP package. A friend convinced him to stay in the game and go for the WSOP seat by agreeing to buy a piece of his action at the WSOP.

So, that's $30,000 in WSOP packages, $8,000 for fourth, and let's say another $20,000 sprinkled around for paying out fifth, sixth, etc, plus the fact that WSOP packages tend to be $12,000 or $15,000 to cover travel and room. That's more like 100 players. Not 1000.

And as far as winning the WSOP, anybody who wins it is "lucky" because you need to win coin-flips and even come from behind hands to make it that far. No player has ever made it deep in the WSOP and not been behind at least a few times. That particular time they happened to hit. Is that luck? Well, mathematically if the odds were 70/30 against you, you're still going to win 30% of the time.

But true belief in luck means you don't mind getting your money in behind because you have a rabbit's foot in your pocket or you've just been down at the temple making merit and you've got that lucky feeling that your 72o is going to crack my aces. Like I said, anybody who really believes in luck like that, I would be more than happy to play poker with you.

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Guest Lollipop
What kind do you want?
Striped one. 3 bath for a top, pants and skirt are 7, 5ß for Bras and 10 for panties.

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Like I said, anybody who really believes in luck like that, I would be more than happy to play poker with you.

having read all that u posted ..... i still reckon Chris Moneymaker was one lucky motherfucker !!! :D:D

and while i agree everything has a certain probability ... when it's millions to one the guy who is that one is f**king lucky !!!

but i wouldn't recommend using luck as a "system" for gambling !!!

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Like I said, anybody who really believes in luck like that, I would be more than happy to play poker with you.

having read all that u posted ..... i still reckon Chris Moneymaker was one lucky motherfucker !!! :D:D

and while i agree everything has a certain probability ... when it's millions to one the guy who is that one is f**king lucky !!!

but i wouldn't recommend using luck as a "system" for gambling !!!

Sure, and there are people who have won multiple big jackpots in the lottery. I'm too lazy to do the math but I think that is more unlikely than Chris Moneymaker winning the WSOP Main Event.

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The fact statistically that someone will win a given event 1 out of every billion times does not specify who will win, just that statistically someone will win. The fact that the winner happens to be you is luck, and you are right. Chris winning the WSOP was luck, because he's not that good of a player.

Chris's first win gave him an entry into the second level of the event, as it did 1000 other players, out of those 1000 there was one first prize seat into the WSOP, and Chris won that. From talking with him, that is my understanding as to how he got into the event, and ended up giving his dad a $1million piece of his action. He might have been lieing, I don't know.

Also the story of him losing $500k to the big boys the first month after his WSOP win might also be lies, but that is how he explained his win, and the outcome when I met him in Tahoe 2 months later.

I'd be more than happy to play you poker anytime....lolol. You run online poker sites. I supervised live poker rooms for Harrah's, so yes, I'll play you anytime you want after I get back to Bangkok, and I don't gamble....hehe.

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