FarangFarang Posted May 15, 2012 Report Share Posted May 15, 2012 According to a poll conducted by the Associated Press and CNBC, 46% of respondents think Facebook will fade away as new platforms come along in the future. Read More How long do you give Facebook? LOL Actually, I do think that Facebook will eventually stumble. They remind me a lot of AOL back when AOL was the largest ISP in the world. MySpace died very quickly. They were basically the biggest game in town and all of a sudden Facebook came out of nowhere and now MySpace is a joke. The same could happen to Facebook if some new, fresh service comes along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 15, 2012 Report Share Posted May 15, 2012 Facebook won't crash as quickly as MySpace...if it crashes. It has become a household utility of the 21st century such as gas and electric. The one HUGE flaw that MySpace (and every other site like it) had was urging people to make up usernames. Most people on Facebook use their real names and are therefore tied to that account til death or marriage do them part. Who says a better site can't come along and make you use your real name? Well, they can. BUT, Facebook is now tied into every site out there. It's hard to come across a website now that doesn't have at least a Facebook "like" button. Once people are 20% into building a site, they usually start up a Facebook page and add buttons to connect them with Facebook. MySpace never evolved. Rarely would you see changes. Facebook owns their users, and whether we admit it or not, we like to be owned and bitch-slapped by sites. Spank me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2012 Facebook won't crash as quickly as MySpace...if it crashes. It has become a household utility of the 21st century such as gas and electric. The one HUGE flaw that MySpace (and every other site like it) had was urging people to make up usernames. Most people on Facebook use their real names and are therefore tied to that account til death or marriage do them part. Who says a better site can't come along and make you use your real name? Well, they can. BUT, Facebook is now tied into every site out there. It's hard to come across a website now that doesn't have at least a Facebook "like" button. Once people are 20% into building a site, they usually start up a Facebook page and add buttons to connect them with Facebook. MySpace never evolved. Rarely would you see changes. Facebook owns their users, and whether we admit it or not, we like to be owned and bitch-slapped by sites. Spank me. Yeah, but you could make a similar argument for AOL and Yahoo (or Excite, Lycos, and a whole host of other sites). Though they all used usernames, they were the 800 lb gorilla at one point. Twenty years ago people thought AOL was the internet. And although Yahoo never gained traction in Thailand like it did in the US and Europe, Yahoo was the defacto search engine until Google showed up. Now they're struggling and going through CEO's more often that Thailand goes through PM's. I agree, it won't be easy but I think there is a certain dynamic which makes switching technologies easier as more and more people use the internet. It's more mainstream. So, if BoobBook comes out tomorrow and is way cooler than Facebook it'll be in newspapers, magazines, television, etc. And if they take a bite into Facebook that'll be reported in the mainstream media too. That raises awareness to an alternative which gets more people to sign up and spend time on BoobBook that they would otherwise spend on Facebook. If BoobBook can hit a certain critical mass, people will have a FB and BB account and slowly migrate from FB to BB. And, at some point, people are going to demand that their Facebook data be portable. As people become more and more attached to Facebook they're sharing more and more data which they don't want to lose. As soon as they allow you to export your data, it'll be much easier for someone to come along and steal away users since you can move over to their site with all of your data. Also, in terms of what you're saying about everyone having an account, there's a difference between having a Facebook account and using Facebook. I've had a Facebook account for years but I rarely used it until the last 2 or 3 years. I use it more often now because so many people are on it but if Facebook started losing people to a rival service or the "fad" of Facebook passes and people quit using it like crack monkeys, I would end up using it less too. I still have a MySpace account (I think). That doesn't mean I used it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stramash Posted May 15, 2012 Report Share Posted May 15, 2012 Google plus was launched as the rocket of future competition but has to date spluttered as a wet fart of mediocrity. I don't think FB will fail the way Myspazz or Bebo has but it could hit a wall. The whole Timeline saga seems to be a growing wave of dissent and I do think it may lose FB users...but not in any significant numbers until there is a viable alternative, and that's going to take a lot to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Also, in terms of what you're saying about everyone having an account, there's a difference between having a Facebook account and using Facebook. I've had a Facebook account for years but I rarely used it until the last 2 or 3 years. I use it more often now because so many people are on it but if Facebook started losing people to a rival service or the "fad" of Facebook passes and people quit using it like crack monkeys, I would end up using it less too. I still have a MySpace account (I think). That doesn't mean I used it. the thing is FB has such a massive % of internet users signed up already .... and (it would appear) that quite a lot of the signed up users r active and visible !! also FB encourages interaction between friends and ppl with large friends list (just about every-*******-body) are going to be reluctant to give up that and start from scratch again !!!i think it's going to be very difficult for a new kid on the block to eat in significantly to FBs membership .... not impossible though ... just very very difficult !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Google plus was launched as the rocket of future competition but has to date spluttered as a wet fart of mediocrity. I don't think FB will fail the way Myspazz or Bebo has but it could hit a wall. The whole Timeline saga seems to be a growing wave of dissent and I do think it may lose FB users...but not in any significant numbers until there is a viable alternative, and that's going to take a lot to do. I personally love Timeline. I know only two other people who agree with me 100% on that, but such is life. I think they are smart with this slow roll-out thing as well. People have been getting Timeline for 8 months or so already...imagine if they did it all in one fast wave? Holy shit. Timeline is good for Facebook because it helps with the whole stalker thing. It makes it much easier for people to stalk people, including themselves. I honestly don't do it, but I think that was one of the reasons behind this idea. The reason I love it is because...ok, I like to stalk myself. Forget that last paragraph I wrote. It's cool to scroll through a few years of your life in a matter of 30 seconds. I appreciate Bill's points on how other sites can and will absorb all of Facebook's info and take over the social networking industry, but it's just not going to happen anytime soon. By anytime soon I mean before December 21st, 2030. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Side note: Interesting to see that there are no Thai replies yet. I'll sit and wonder to myself as to why, but I'd like to hear from the Thais as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 although FB being valued at more than 100 billion dollars is ******* insane !!! it's a ******* website for christs sake !!! http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/15/facebook-raises-float-price-investors?intcmp=239 [h=1]Facebook raises float price after being 'swamped' by investors[/h] Price hiked to $34-$38 a share – valuing social network at $104.2bn and the most expensive US company to go public Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 although FB being valued at more than 100 billion dollars is fucking insane !!! it's a fucking website for christs sake !!!http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/15/facebook-raises-float-price-investors?intcmp=239 Facebook raises float price after being 'swamped' by investors Price hiked to $34-$38 a share – valuing social network at $104.2bn and the most expensive US company to go public It's a fucking website that connects almost all companies, organizations, and governments...not to mention over 2 billion people around the world! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 It's a ******* website that connects almost all companies, organizations, and governments...not to mention over 2 billion people around the world! 2 billion ppl !!! well ... if u say so !!! however more than 100 billion dollars seems a lot for a website that's "a passing fad" and that doesn't appear to make that much money ... from the linked article !! "Facebook made $3.7bn in revenue and $1bn in profits last year, but both were down in the first quarter compared with the Christmas period, a drop attributed to seasonal trends in advertising. Facebook declined to comment." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 2 billion ppl !!! well ... if u say so !!!however more than 100 billion dollars seems a lot for a website that's "a passing fad" Mission Accomplished: Ciaran has admitted that he trusts in the word of Americans. Our work is done here, boys. Lets move on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Mission Accomplished: Ciaran has admitted that he trusts in the word of Americans.Our work is done here, boys. Lets move on... and i thought it was just asians who didn't get sarcasm !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 It's a fucking website that connects almost all companies, organizations, and governments...not to mention over 2 billion people around the world! And on a smaller scale, so did AOL. Many corporations had special sections on AOL. Government agencies had AOL areas. One (of several) things that killed AOL was that they were founded based on the idea of keeping people as long as they can. Since AOL was billing per minute they brainwashed the entire company to think about getting just one more click (I know, I got a call from Steve Case once suggesting adding additional links to a story I wrote for AOL). When that business model changed to all you can eat internet, AOL's corporate mentality couldn't make the change quickly enough and they soon became a C-Level player. If someone comes along and shakes up Facebook's business model the same could happen to them. It's basically an issue of how FB performs for their corporate partners. For instance, today GM just announced that they're pulling all of their advertising on FB because they aren't getting a good return on the money being spent. All of those games on FB? Yeah, you have to use FB coins to make purchases and FB takes a 30% commission. Nobody doing business with FB is happy about FB's egregious charges. Believe me, if something new comes along that gives advertisers and business partners a greater return on investment, they will abandon FB. Not that I think that's happening anytime soon. It's just that size is not a huge barrier as long as the switching costs are low. If I can take my data (which currently you can't) and set up a profile on BoobBook I can dump FB very easily if something better comes along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Not that I think that's happening anytime soon. It's just that size is not a huge barrier as long as the switching costs are low. If I can take my data (which currently you can't) and set up a profile on BoobBook I can dump FB very easily if something better comes along. that's the key to why it's difficult for a new player to eat into FBs membership .... and i can't see FB making the transfer of data easy !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 16, 2012 Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 and i thought it was just asians who didn't get sarcasm !!! I was referring to you listening to Bill that Facebook is a passing fad...ohhh...the suck of the Irish! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 that's the key to why it's difficult for a new player to eat into FBs membership .... and i can't see FB making the transfer of data easy !! True, but there was recently some blabber in the news about laws that would require employees to give their employer their Facebook login and password. http://aulaborlawforum.org/2012/04/16/update-maryland-protects-employees-facebook-password-privacy/ http://www.northerncaliforniaemploymentlawattorneys.com/2012/04/california-employers-hands-off-your-employees-facebook-passwords.shtml http://www.bgr.com/2012/03/29/congress-blocks-law-that-would-prevent-employers-from-demanding-facebook-passwords/ When the government starts getting involved like this, it means that people in the mainstream are starting to understand the power of social media sites. I don't think it's too farfetched to see a day down the road where there is a law that says that *I* own the data about myself and social networks have to provide it to me if I request it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Also, I think people are starting to get a little wary of some of these big online services like Facebook, Google, Twitter, etc in terms of being cut off from your info. For instance, a site I read often had their Google AdSense account terminated. Why? They don't know. Google refuses to cite a specific reason and as far as they can tell they're in compliance with all of AdSense's TOS. They wrote about it on their blog and dozens of other people shared that they had also had their accounts terminated recently and they too were completely lost as to why. Now, it might be easy to write off AdSense because there are alternatives but what if FB terminated your account, years worth of posts, pictures, contact info, and wouldn't tell you why? What if Google or Microsoft suddenly terminated your email account and nobody would explain what you did? All it'll take is some dying, handicapped, grieving, etc person to have their social media account terminated with enough of a sob story about what they lost or how they're completely destroyed by it, and the story will pick up steam and get some lawmaker somewhere to propose that these social media sites shouldn't be able to erase your life based on their internal policies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2012 Oh, and eventually, we'll all get tired of dealing with people like this :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 17, 2012 Report Share Posted May 17, 2012 True, but there was recently some blabber in the news about laws that would require employees to give their employer their Facebook login and password. http://aulaborlawforum.org/2012/04/16/update-maryland-protects-employees-facebook-password-privacy/http://www.northerncaliforniaemploymentlawattorneys.com/2012/04/california-employers-hands-off-your-employees-facebook-passwords.shtmlhttp://www.bgr.com/2012/03/29/congress-blocks-law-that-would-prevent-employers-from-demanding-facebook-passwords/When the government starts getting involved like this, it means that people in the mainstream are starting to understand the power of social media sites. I don't think it's too farfetched to see a day down the road where there is a law that says that *I* own the data about myself and social networks have to provide it to me if I request it. ehhhhh Bill did u actually read those links .... those laws were to prevent employees from having to give their logins and passwords to FB and other sites to their employers !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 17, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2012 ehhhhh Bill did u actually read those links .... those laws were to prevent employees from having to give their logins and passwords to FB and other sites to their employers !!! Yes, I know. That's the point. The laws are starting to reflect the fact that this information has personal value to the individual. The federal and two state governments have basically shot down businesses who want to exercise control over this personal information. What I was getting at is that as the laws evolve it's not farfetched to imagine that this view about people's personal information could be extended to the people collecting it in the first place (i.e. Facebook, Google, etc). And in Europe, especially France, I can very easily see the government saying, "If you want to operate in our country, you have to allow people to take their data elsewhere." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 17, 2012 Report Share Posted May 17, 2012 Yes, I know. That's the point. The laws are starting to reflect the fact that this information has personal value to the individual. The federal and two state governments have basically shot down businesses who want to exercise control over this personal information. What I was getting at is that as the laws evolve it's not farfetched to imagine that this view about people's personal information could be extended to the people collecting it in the first place (i.e. Facebook, Google, etc). And in Europe, especially France, I can very easily see the government saying, "If you want to operate in our country, you have to allow people to take their data elsewhere." ok ... but that's not what ur original post implied .... "True, but there was recently some blabber in the news about laws that would require employees to give their employer their Facebook login and password."and i can understand the bit about ur "personal information" being data individuals should be allowed to transfer .... but there's so much bollocks posted on FB how is someone going to decide what is "personal information" and what is public/website bollocks !!for example ... ppl u have "friended" on FB ... should u be allowed to transfer them to another social website or can FB claim the "friendship" is limited to FB .... and IF u transfer the information to another site ... r u then abusing their "personal information" ??also ... if i remember correctly (which isn't a given) don't u sign over the rights of what u put on FB as part of the terms and conditions of joining the site !!!BTW ... i see most financial pundits reckon FB is way over priced at the moment !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 17, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2012 ok ... but that's not what ur original post implied .... "True, but there was recently some blabber in the news about laws that would require employees to give their employer their Facebook login and password." and i can understand the bit about ur "personal information" being data individuals should be allowed to transfer .... but there's so much bollocks posted on FB how is someone going to decide what is "personal information" and what is public/website bollocks !! for example ... ppl u have "friended" on FB ... should u be allowed to transfer them to another social website or can FB claim the "friendship" is limited to FB .... and IF u transfer the information to another site ... r u then abusing their "personal information" ?? also ... if i remember correctly (which isn't a given) don't u sign over the rights of what u put on FB as part of the terms and conditions of joining the site !!! BTW ... i see most financial pundits reckon FB is way over priced at the moment !!!! Perhaps I phrased it poorly in the previous post. Yes, it does bring up a lot of sticky issues. However, watching sites like Google and Facebook monopolize various niches in social media or email hosting, I think it has to be ironed out. I mean, what if in 10 years Facebook says, "Sorry Ciaran, we don't like your type so we've closed your account and deleted the last 10 years worth of your data and there's no dispute process. Goodbye and fuck off." As I said, it's going to happen to the wrong person eventually. Somebody all of the little people can rally behind. Maybe it's some kid dying of cancer who says his dream is to get 1 million friends and Facebook closes his account and deletes everything because they think he's a spammer due to the sudden surge in friend requests. The media will be all over that and some arse licking politician will say, "This is an outrage! Facebook can't just delete someone's life!" And that will start the ball rolling towards putting some rules on sites like FB and Google. As far as their rules . . . I don't need no stinkin' rules. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarangFarang Posted May 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2012 Other sites people thought were too big to fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiaranM Posted May 23, 2012 Report Share Posted May 23, 2012 Other sites people thought were too big to fall i don't think anybody is saying that FB is too big to fail ... but NONE of the site above had the market (user) share that FB has ... also a (large) part of those sites failing is that FB offered what those individual sites had in a single package !!!on another note .. i see FB shares fell again yesterday ... down nearly 20% from the opening day price !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin_2 Posted May 23, 2012 Report Share Posted May 23, 2012 Look at any of the sites now (or even in the screenshots that you've posted), and you'll see something interesting. They have a facebook connect button. I agree that Facebook will fail at some point. Then again, the Roman Empire failed as well. The USA's empire will crumble at some point too. My point is that it will take a massive social and/or economic movement to take down Facebook. It's not like when Friendster just started to suck so people left it. It doesn't matter if Facebook has or is sucking at the moment. It's so engrained in our lives and businesses in a way that Friendster or AOL never was. AOL basically said, "Hey, the Internet is cool...we'll connect you to it and we'll show you some cool things on it." Facebook is different in that it says, "This is social media, you show everyone what *you* can do with it...and attach your real name to it as well." That's not just about what people post about their everyday lives. Facebook is allowing for developers as well as your average user to make their own pages and games if they want. It's a lot like the culture of YouTube, but with so much more to offer...PLUS much more room to grow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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