The Arctic's geological record indicates warming is human-ca

[Bruce551]

The Arctic's geological record indicates warming is human-caused

Close study of the sediment timeline shows that increased ice melt coincides with the birth of the Industrial Age. It's strong evidence that global warming is man's work, researchers say.

By Thomas H. Maugh II, LA Times

September 5, 2009

Long-term climate records from the Arctic provide strong new evidence that human-caused global warming can override Earth's natural heating and cooling cycles, U.S. researchers reported this week in the journal Science.&

For more than 2,000 years, a natural wobble in Earth's axis has caused the Arctic region to move farther away from the sun during the region's summer, reducing the amount of solar radiation it receives.

The Arctic is now 600,000 miles farther from the sun than it was in AD 1, and temperatures there should have fallen a little more than 1 degree Fahrenheit since then.

Instead, the region has warmed 2.2 degrees since 1900 alone, and the decade from 1998 to 2008 was the warmest in two millenniums, according to a team headed by climatologist Darrell S. Kaufman of Northern Arizona University.

Not only was the last half-century the warmest of the last 2,000 years, "but it reversed the long-term, millennial-scale trend toward cooler temperatures," Kaufman said.

The results seem to negate the primary argument of those who say the current warming of Earth is simply a natural variation, he said.


The Arctic region has actually warmed about three times as much as the rest of Earth through a well-known effect called Arctic amplification.

As reflective snow and ice melt and are replaced by dark water and vegetated surfaces that absorb more sunlight, trapped heat is released back into the atmosphere. The absorption also thaws permafrost, releasing greenhouse gases such as methane back into the atmosphere to increase warming even more. (Tipping Point)

The climate warming record was produced from tree rings, glacier ice and cores drilled in 14 lakes around the Arctic. Layers of sediment provided a proxy for temperatures: thicker layers indicated higher temperatures as water from melting glaciers pushed mud into the lakes, while thinner layers indicated less melting.

All three data sources told the same story -- that the Arctic began to warm at the beginning of the Industrial Age in the mid-1800s, when humans began releasing large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

The temperature increase is supported by recent data showing that glaciers in the region are shrinking more rapidly than has ever been observed.

As the glaciers shrink, they release water that raises ocean levels, threatening coastlines around the world. Scientists have been debating how high the oceans will rise, but many say an increase of 6 to 9 feet is not out of the question if greenhouse gas release continues at the current rate.

The 21,000-year cycle of the axis wobble is now in its 7,000th year, and the Arctic will not reach its closest point to the sun for 14,000 more years.

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"Most importantly, as long as we continue to depend on dirty fossil fuels like coal and oil to meet our energy needs, and dump 70 million tons of global warming pollution into the thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet, we move closer and closer to several dangerous tipping points which scientists have repeatedly warned - again just yesterday - will threaten to make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable destruction of the conditions that make human civilization possible on this planet."

Al Gore

And what's Thailand's answer to this problem? Build 13 new coal plants.

Asia-Pacific

No sign of a slowdown in Asia?s reliance on coal

Both Thailand and Malaysia have announced that they plan to increase their reliance on coal to generate electricity.

In Thailand, a new development plan that would see 18 new plants built between 2011 and 2015, with a combined capacity of 13 230 MW, will rely largely on coal and hydro, according to Nokhun Sithipong, deputy permanent secretary of the Energy Ministry. He said the plan did not prioritise gas fuelled stations because gas already fuels 70 per cent of Thailand?s power stations.

[Bruce551]

EDITORIAL Avoiding the abyss

Published: 6/09/2009 at 12:00 AM, Bangkok Post

Newspaper section: News

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon could not have been much more dramatic when describing the dangers of climate change before the World Climate Conference on Thursday. "Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss," Mr Ban told delegates and ministers from 150 countries at the meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

He warned that rising sea levels would threaten major cities and said that many ''more distant scenarios'' predicted by scientists on climate change are already happening.

The UN chief has made the issue his first priority, and last week ventured to the Arctic, accompanied by scientists and Erik Solheim, Norwegian environment and international development minister, to get a first-hand look at the changes already taking place in that vulnerable region due to global warming.

He has previously gone to Antarctica and the Amazon rainforest of Brazil on the same mission.

Mr Ban should be applauded for his efforts, but it is looking less and less likely that the international community is ready to be roused into the type of actions that are needed to mitigate global warming to any significant degree.

If we look around us here in Thailand we have to admit that not much is being done.

True, there is progress in mass transit, and less-polluting crop-based fuels are being promoted for private vehicles, but there's not much else to point to. There's certainly no sweeping policy in place to tackle the country's growing greenhouse emissions.

In Australia an effort to put such a policy in place was shot down last month when a bill which set a national cap on carbon emissions and allowed for the selling and trading of permits to allow large industries extra emissions was turned down by the Senate.

In the United States an already watered-down cap-and-trade bill, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Aces), has passed the House of Representatives but looks to be in for a tough time passing the Senate and becoming law.

There are signs that the oil industry is putting together the kind of faux grassroots, or ''astroturf'', campaign against the bill that is being mounted against health care reform by insurance and pharmaceutical companies.

In China there was some cause for hope recently with the news that the country has become a leader in solar power technology. However, coal-fired power plants still produce more than 70% of the country's electricity. Hope is being placed in ''clean coal'' technology to capture carbon emissions in China and in the US, but at the present time this is just an expensive dream.

At the heart of the climate change debate in both developed and developing nations is the enormous cost associated with making drastic reductions in greenhouse gases. We are told that building a green energy infrastructure can lead to wealth as well as a better world, but most people aren't quite convinced as yet. Alongside this is the tremendous political influence of those with a vested interest in maintaining a fossil fuel energy economy.

Around the world there are many individuals and groups involved in innovative ways to develop clean energy and fight climate change, but outside the European Union there isn't much evidence of the political will needed to hammer out a deal in December in Copenhagen at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, where it is hoped a successor to the largely ineffective Kyoto climate change protocol can be agreed on.

Negotiating sessions for the conference in Copenhagen will be held this month in Bangkok.

Mr Ban is concerned about the lack of progress thus far on talks leading up to the make-or-break global gathering in December. He has urged world leaders to ''take action immediately'' to preserve the planet and combat climate change, and has put together a summit later this month in New York for ''candid and constructive discussions''.

''I expect serious bridge building. I expect strong outcomes

[in New York],'' said Mr Ban in Geneva.

Good luck to you, Mr Ban, and to all of us.