Phuket airplane crash!!!!

[Loburt]

Implies does not equal proves.

[Loburt]

Bangkok Post

September 22, 2007

EDITORIAL

Speculation a flight of fancy

The crash of a One-Two-Go airliner at Phuket International Airport was a tragic and lamentable event, responsible for great loss of life.

It is unfortunate that the Sept 16 disaster has become the butt of so much speculation. Even more deplorable, a round of finger-pointing almost unprecedented in pitch and wild guesses broke out even before the injured received care and the victims could be identified. It is clear that most of the public talk about the crash is worthless on its own. It also is demeaning to everyone involved in this sad event, eventually to the Thai public. It is time to draw the curtain on this sorry discussion, and wait for facts, evidence and expert testimony about what caused the crash of Flight OG269.

The amount of speculation and mostly hapless accusations in the wake of the crash was regrettable, to say the least. If all the conjecture about the crash is to believed, pretty well everything was to blame.

First, fingers were pointed at the pilots, the weather, the airline, the airplane, the airport and the runway. A pathetic Internet columnist began by commenting on the ''ridiculous airline name''. The day after the crash, three Bangkok newspapers printed headline stories that human error caused the crash, a fourth blamed what it called an old, unsafe airplane, and two informed their readers that wind shear was the cause.

Sensible people quickly realised that like many air tragedies, there is no clear answer as to what caused the crash of Flight OG269. This does not mean, however, that the fate of the flight is a mystery. A dependable system of accounting for airline accidents is well established around the world. As readers peruse this newspaper, experts in several countries are well at work unravelling the facts around the last flight of the One-Two-Go plane. In due course, these facts will be known, and probably made public. The flight recorders, the so-called black boxes, are even now being decoded. Then, teams of experts will analyse it. All parties who may have been involved in the crash _ makers of the airplane, One-Two-Go officials, Thai agencies and many more _ will provide their professional opinions. By then, a consensus may be possible that pinpoints the specific cause of the Sept 16 crash. Because almost any outcome is possible, no one can say what will happen then.

No agency or official can come to a quick conclusion about what happened. Cool heads remember the explosion that blew up a Thai Airways International plane on the ground at Don Mueang Airport on March 3, 2001, killing a flight attendant and injuring seven people. Then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra tried to assure the country it was a terrorist attack aiming to assassinate him. In fact, it was a mechanical, fuel-tank problem. The identical problem killed all 230 people aboard TWA Flight 880 off New York on July 17, 1996 _ an accident that was immediately labelled as a terrorist attack and national alert.

Getting proper results of the crash investigation of Flight 268 is vital. Depending on the facts, it may be necessary to revise or to introduce new regulations to protect the public. Until then, no one has the right to point fingers. The Indonesian captain passed all necessary flight standards to fly in any country, just as other pilots of the airline, including his Thai co-pilot. It may be easy for critics to point at the pilot, but there is a strong chance that he only is a scapegoat. If investigation proves the captain was not at fault, how will these critics apologise to the captain's already grieving family for the massive and extra distress they have caused?

Appropriate government agencies must take extra steps as soon as possible to inspect One-Two-Go and all other airlines operating in the country. Travellers are understandably nervous about possible dangers of air travel. Authorities need to assure the public that planes, crew, maintenance and airport operations are up to, and above, requirements. Speculation about what caused the Phuket crash should cease.

[Zombiedriven]

When something that bad happens people always point fingers. It is in human nature

[robbie36]

Now instead of arguing with you because I have been in the career for 25 years, do yourself a little homework and please post the FACTS.

Question: Over the past 4 years that One Two Go has been operating, how many total flights have their aircraft made (total) in that 4 year time frame?

Now they have had one accident. So do the math Robbie and tell me what percent of their flights have crashed since the inception of the airlines? I bet it is pretty dam low. Then on the day the aircraft in question crashed, looked up how many people were killed in car accidents around Thailand that same day? You might surprise yourself with the facts.

So just for fun I took a look at 1-2-Gos safety record and compared it.I didnt have the facts for Thailand so I simply compared its track record (over 4 years since inception) with US figures for cars and planes.

Good FACTs these...

........................Planes........Autos...1-2-Go*

Deaths/year.............256.......42000.......22

billion miles/year........516.........4390........7

Ave miles/trip...........350............25......450

No. of trips '000.......1470......175600.......15

deaths/billion miles......0.5..........9.56......3.1

deaths/trips x m........174............239...1467

* Assumed 6 flights times 7 planes at 450 miles per day.

What the facts show....

1. First, the idea that travelling by plane is actually safer than by car is a bit of an urban myth. You only arrive at that stat if you look at deaths per/billion miles. Of course if you fly you often fly 10,000 miles in one go - the equivalent to a whole years driving. If you look at death per trip then planes and cars are fairly similar...

2. Now if we look at 1-2-G0s record - they have managed to kill 88 people over the last 4 years or an average of 22 per year. Doesnt sound much but then they only have 7 planes (imagine having a fleet of 7 cars and killing 22 passengers a year).

Based on a deaths/trip ratio travelling by 1-2-Go is about 8 times more dangerous than travelling by plane in the US and 6 times more dangerous than travelling by car.

[Loburt]

So just for fun I took a look at 1-2-Gos safety record and compared it.

.. they have managed to kill 88 people over the last 4 years or an average of 22 per year. Doesnt sound much but then they only have 7 planes (imagine having a fleet of 7 cars and killing 22 passengers a year).

Yeah, they had one crash that killed 88 people (not four or more crashes killing 22 people a year) and it hasn't been determined yet if they were at fault.

Perhaps they were at fault. But you certainly don't know.

And that doesn't make the dishonest way you're twisting statistics around acceptable.

It just makes you look, well, dishonest.

[Loburt]

........................Planes........Autos...1-2-Go*

Deaths/year.............256.......42000.......22

Your statistics are also for ****.

You're using stats from the US, one of the safest countries for driving, and comparing them with a Thai airline.

Why don't you look at Asia. According to the World Health Organization, 600,000 people are killed in auto accidents on Asia's roads every year with another 9.4 million severely injured.

That gives Asia half of the world's road fatalities, while it only has about 16% of the world's vehicles. How safe does that sound?

India alone has 80,000 road deaths a year. Double the US. There are far more vehicles in the US than India, so don't compare populations.

An average of 36 people a day are killed in traffic accidents in Thailand. That's sixth highest in the world.

You're really cooking the books here.

[robbie36]

........................Planes........Autos...1-2-Go*

Deaths/year.............256.......42000.......22

Your statistics are also for sh*t.

According to the World Health Organization, 600,000 people are killed in auto accidents on Asia's roads every year with another 9.4 million severely injured.

Not 42,000.

And that's just Asia.

Try reading my post properly before mouthing off....

My statistics are for the US in any one year and also for taken for 1-2-Go and annualised (I hope that isnt to much for you to understand). In other words they show the number of deaths in the us per year/per trip/per billion miles. I have then taken 1-2-Gos figures for their entire 4 years and annualised them.

I simply compared 1-2-Gos track record against that of the US. I havent compared it to Asia because I dont have the figures.

Perhaps if you do you might like to enlighten us - one figure (that for road deaths throughout Asia) means absolutely nothing unless you have something to compare it against.

An average of 36 people a day are killed in traffic accidents in Thailand. That's sixth highest in the world.

This is the sort of statistic that in isolation means absolutely nothing. There are 14 million people a day travelling by car so no wonder there are many more deaths. How many travel by plane in one day in Thailand - 10,000 maybe...

If there were 1500 times as many planes in the air as there are now (so that there are the same number of people flying as there are in cars) there would clearly be a lot more crashes.

But Loburt if you have the stats go ahead and show them. You might be able to show that travelling by plane is slightly safer than travelling by car in Thailand. Maybe. Just maybe. But there is no way that you will show that travelling by 1-2-Go is safer than travelling by car in Thailand....

[Loburt]

Try reading my post properly before mouthing off....

Well, having gone back and re-read what you wrote and edited my reply before you posted..

..your statistics are still for ****.

You're being dishonest.

If you want to go that route, then we can say that since 101 people died in the Thai Airways crash in Surat Thani in 1998 that Thai Airways has killed an average of 10.1 people a year during the last ten years.

That's bullshit, but that's what you're doing when you cook the numbers that way.

[robbie36]

An average of 36 people a day are killed in traffic accidents in Thailand. That's sixth highest in the world.

I am sure this statistic includes motorcyclists that is why he total is so high. Even I would admit that flying 1-2-Go is probably safer than driving around on a motorcycle.

Why does it take so long to get the data from the 'black box'?

Truthfully, Loburt, would you book your children (real or imaginary) on 1-2-go?

[frankenburner2]

So just for fun I took a look at 1-2-Gos safety record and compared it.

.. they have managed to kill 88 people over the last 4 years or an average of 22 per year. Doesnt sound much but then they only have 7 planes (imagine having a fleet of 7 cars and killing 22 passengers a year).

Yeah, they had one crash that killed 88 people (not four or more crashes killing 22 people a year) and it hasn't been determined yet if they were at fault.

Perhaps they were at fault. But you certainly don't know.

And that doesn't make the dishonest way you're twisting statistics around acceptable.

It just makes you look, well, dishonest.

As does everybody, I hate to agree with Loburt.

But in 12 months time, assuming there are no other crashes, are you going to repost that they kill 88 people per year?...why not just say 88 people per month? If you want annualize something, annualize the number of crashes over the past 4 years?

[robbie36]

FB2,

If you want annualize something, annualize the number of crashes over the past 4 years?

that is exactly what i did in my stats - 88/4=22.... geddit?

Good FACTs these...

........................Planes........Autos...1-2-Go*

Deaths/year.............256.......42000.......22

billion miles/year........516.........4390........7

Ave miles/trip...........350............25......450

No. of trips '000.......1470......175600.......15

deaths/billion miles......0.5..........9.56......3.1

deaths/trips x m........174............239...1467

* Assumed 6 flights times 7 planes at 450 miles per day.

(Incidentally I dont claim that these stats prove very much. If you look, the Orient Thai manager claimed that if I looked at these statistics it would show how good their safety record is. I am simply pointing out that pranging one of your 7 planes over 4 years is not good by aviation standards. Thai airways record - 1 crash from 84 planes over 10 years is much the industry norm.)

[Joopjip]

Although there are generally more chances of dying in a car crash compared to airplanes I think the fact that the destiny is more in your hand because you're the one driving makes most people feel much safer with driving than flying. I know there's a chance of unforseen uncontrollable events such as other drunk drivers or whatever killing you but because it's something with more understandable risks compared to airplanes god I have learned how you made them fly but I just don't quite get it really! My sis is going to be a flight attendant soon and although she always drive like a crazy angry ***** everyday for the past few years I'm never quite as worried about her safety as now

[Stu_thailand]

Although there are generally more chances of dying in a car crash compared to airplanes I think the fact that the destiny is more in your hand because you're the one driving makes most people feel much safer with driving than flying.

I know there's a chance of unforseen uncontrollable events such as other drunk drivers or whatever killing you but because it's something with more understandable risks compared to airplanes god I have learned how you made them fly but I just don't quite get it really!

My sis is going to be a flight attendant soon and although she always drive like a crazy angry b*tch everyday for the past few years

I'm never quite as worried about her safety as now

NOT in Thailand. I drive from time to time here in Thailand. When driving, I have gone from a confident 3000km per week driver that I was in the UK, to a jibbering nervous wreck in Thailand. Choice: Be a passenger with another Guy in control who has studied long and hard to get ewhere he is, OR, Drive a car where people can Buy their driving luicenses with a little under the table money? Do I need to answer?

Yes, another "I've got to be there first" person who doesn't even consider the consequences of what will happen to other people should they lose control and have a serious accident.

Don't worry na - I GUARANTEE that whilst she is in the skies, and not on the roads of Thailand, She will be fine and dandy.

[robbie36]

I am simply pointing out that pranging one of your 7 planes over 4 years is not good by aviation standards. Thai airways record - 1 crash from 84 planes over 10 years is much the industry norm.)

Robbie, is it safe for me to assume that you have shares with Thai Airways?

Hardly....

I fly them but they really are not up to the standard of the really top airlines like British Airways and Singapore Airlines. I wish our national carrier was better, I really do.

[frankenburner2]

FB2,

If you want annualize something, annualize the number of crashes over the past 4 years?

that is exactly what i did in my stats - 88/4=22.... geddit?

)

apparently...you selectively read as well as you present stats...

I said annualize the number of crashes...not the number of deaths!

so that would be one 'crash' in four years...do YOU geddit!

I mean ****..are you serious?...thank God it wasn't a jumbo jet! the annual death toll could be up in the 100's...where did you study stats? "The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

[Guest Tattoodude]

"The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

*tips hat to Frankenburner, makes mental not to self "I wish I had thought of that one"*

[frankenburner2]

"The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

*tips hat to Frankenburner, makes mental not to self "I wish I had thought of that one"*

I'm very clever ya know!

[Guest Tattoodude]

"The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

*tips hat to Frankenburner, makes mental not to self "I wish I had thought of that one"*

I'm very clever ya know!

In which case can you remind me of the name of the thread with you and the Russian bint pictured?

[frankenburner2]

"The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

*tips hat to Frankenburner, makes mental not to self "I wish I had thought of that one"*

I'm very clever ya know!

In which case can you remind me of the name of the thread with you and the Russian bint pictured?

http://www.thailandfriends.com/index.php?name=DB_phpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=11184&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15&sid=fbddb3182411c91a1257df6d746d1418&&sid=fbddb3182411c91a1257df6d746d1418

[robbie36]

"The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

yeah miss him too...

[Katoom]

"The Slurms School of Manipulative Math?"

yeah miss him too...

You don't miss him, you NEED him by the look of it. Eaten any pancakes recently?

[robbie36]

Phuket crash analysis 'could take 3 years'

It will take at least six months and perhaps three years to fully analyse data from the "black box" flight recorders taken from the plane that crashed at Phuket Airport last month, claiming 90 lives, a senior official said Monday.

Aviation Department Director General Chaisak Angkasuwan said data decoded from the black boxes, sent to the US more than two weeks ago, had already reached Thailand but an analysis of the data will need at least six months to three years, depending on its complexity, reported the state-run Thai News Agency (TNA).

Thai budget airline One-Two-Go flight OG269 crashed while attempting to land at Phuket Airport in a heavy rainstorm on September 16.

Altogether 89 people died immediately in the McDonnell-Douglas MD 82 crash, with the 90th victim dying recently from severe burns in hospital.

At least two foreign passengers have brought legal suits against Boeing Company, the owner of McDonnell Douglas.

Chaisak said that Boeing Co would be involved by analysing the data pertaining to the aircraft's operation system, a process that could take at least two months.

The One-Two-Go aircraft broke into two sections before bursting into flames in both wings and the body of the plane, after it smashed into an embankment after skidding off the runway.

Source: Bangkok Post

...so three years to find out what caused the crash...meanwhile no investigation into the working practices of budget airlines...