condotown Posted July 22, 2008 Report Share Posted July 22, 2008 This makes too much sense to me.... The global economy is at the point of maximum danger By Ambrose Evans- Pritchard Last Updated: 6:53am BST 21/07/2008 It feels like the summer of 1931. The world's two biggest financial institutions have had a heart attack. The global currency system is breaking down. The policy doctrines that got us into this mess are bankrupt. No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution. The International Monetary Fund has abdicated into schizophrenia. It has upgraded its 2008 world forecast from 3.7pc to 4.1pc growth, whilst warning of a "chance of a global recession". Plainly, the IMF cannot or will not offer any useful insights. Its "mean-reversion" model misses the entire point of this crisis, which is that central banks have pushed debt to fatal levels by holding interest too low for a generation, and now the chickens have come home to roost. True "mean-reversion" would imply debt deflation on such a scale that would, if abrupt, threaten democracy. The risk is that these same central banks will commit a fresh error, this time overreacting to the oil spike. The European Central Bank has raised rates, warning of a 1970s wage-price spiral. Fixated on the rear-view mirror, it is not looking through the windscreen. The eurozone is falling into recession before the US itself. Its level of credit stress is worse, if measured by Euribor or the iTraxx bond indexes. Core inflation has fallen over the last year from 1.9pc to 1.8pc. The US may soon tip into a second leg of this crisis as the fiscal package runs out and Americans lose jobs in earnest. US bank credit has contracted for three months. Real US wages fell at almost 10pc (annualised) over May and June. This is a ferocious squeeze for an economy already in the grip of the property and debt crunch. No doubt the rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - $5.3 trillion pillars of America's mortgage market - stinks of moral hazard. The Treasury is to buy shares: the Fed has opened its window yet wider. Risks have been socialised. Any rewards will go to capitalists. Alas, no Scandinavian discipline for Wall Street. When Norway's banks fell below critical capital levels in the early 1990s, the Storting authorised seizure. Shareholders were stiffed. But Nordic purism in the vast universe of US credit would court fate. The Californian lender IndyMac was indeed seized after depositors panicked on the streets of Encino. The police had to restore order. This was America's Northern Rock moment. IndyMac will deplete a tenth of the $53bn reserve of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The FDIC has some 90 "troubled" lenders on watch. IndyMac was not one of them. The awful reality is that Washington has its back to the wall. Fed chief Ben Bernanke thought the US could always get out of trouble by monetary stimulus l'outrance", and letting the dollar slide. He has learned that the world is a more complicated place. Oil has queered the pitch. So has America's fatal reliance on foreign debt. The Fannie/Freddie rescue, incidentally, has just lifted the US national debt from German 'AAA' levels to Italian 'AA-' levels. China, Russia, petro-powers and other foreign states own $985bn of US agency debt, besides holdings of US Treasuries. Purchases of Fannie/Freddie debt covered a third of the US current account deficit of $700bn over the last year. Alex Patelis from Merrill Lynch says America faces the risk of a "financing crisis" within months. Foreigners have a veto over US policy. Japan did not have this problem during its Lost Decade. As the world's supplier of credit, it could let the yen slide. It also had a savings rate of 15pc. Albert Edwards from Societe Generale says this has fallen to 3pc today. It has cushioned the slump. Americans are under water before they start. My view is that a dollar crash will be averted as it becomes clearer that contagion has spread worldwide. But we are now at the point of maximum danger. Britain, Japan, and the Antipodes are stalling. Denmark is in recession. Germany contracted in the second quarter. May industrial output fell 6pc in Holland and 5.5pc in Sweden. The coalitions in Belgium and Austria have just collapsed. Germany's left-right team is fraying. One German banker told me that the doctrines of "left Nazism" (Otto Strasser's group, purged by Hitler) had captured the rising Die Linke party. The Social Democrats are picking up its themes to protect their flank. This is the healthy part of Europe. Further south, we are not far away from civic protest. BNP Paribas has just issued a hurricane alert for Spain. Finance minister Pedro Solbes said Spain is facing the "most complex" economic crisis in its history. Actually, it is very simple. The country was lulled into a trap by giveaway interest rates of 2pc under EMU, leading to a current account deficit of 10pc of GDP. A manic property bubble was funded by foreigners buying covered bonds and securities. This market has dried up. Monetary policy is now being tightened into the crunch by the ECB, hence the bankruptcy last week of Martinsa-Fadesa (?5.1bn). With Franco-era labour markets (70pc of wages are inflation-linked), the adjustment will occur through closure of the job marts. China, India, East Europe and emerging Asia have all stolen growth from the future by condoning credit excess. To varying degrees, they are now being forced to pay back their own "inter-temporal overdrafts". If we are lucky, America will start to stabilise before Asia goes down. Should our leaders mismanage affairs, almost every part of the global system will go down together. Then we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
condotown Posted September 23, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2008 I posted this two months ago and nobody took the time to comment on it.... So due to recent and ongoing events, I'll share my thoughts: In essence the guys behind the monetary system or the ones who give the US Treasury permission to print money ceaselessly without considering long term consequences are akin to being the emperor with no clothes or the man behind the curtain in the "Wizard of Oz" When working people realize that the world monetary system is based only on faith and trust in the value of virtually worthless colored paper, and then start losing that trust, things will get really bad in the first world. (Most of the world's population would barely notice a collapse of the monetary system) I mean this is worse than realizing that "God" doesn't exist, because we don't spend "God" to buy food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beej Posted September 23, 2008 Report Share Posted September 23, 2008 I think if shits not sorted by Monday, its hold onto your pants time! Could be some cheap property and stocks to be bought this winter in the US/UK wooo hooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eagle Posted September 23, 2008 Report Share Posted September 23, 2008 makes poor the new in thing. So the meek could inherit the earth after all .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeusbheld Posted September 23, 2008 Report Share Posted September 23, 2008 makes poor the new in thing. So the meek could inherit the earth after all .......... nah a certain, perhaps small, percentage of the rich will find ways to hang onto everything and increase the gap between rich and poor. the meek won't inherit ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hbkbkk Posted September 23, 2008 Report Share Posted September 23, 2008 Think elbow room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
condotown Posted December 22, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 The governor of the Bank of Spain on Sunday issued a bleak assessment of the economic crisis, warning that the world faced a "total" financial meltdown unseen since the Great Depression. "The lack of confidence is total," Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said in an interview with Spain's El Pais daily. "The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending. "There is an almost total paralysis from which no-one is escaping," he said, adding that any recovery -- pencilled in by optimists for the end of 2009 and the start of 2010 -- could be delayed if confidence is not restored. Ordonez recognised that falling oil prices and lower taxes could kick-start a faster-than-anticipated recovery, but warned that a deepening cycle of falling consumer demand, rising unemployment and an ongoing lending squeeze could not be ruled out. "This is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression" of 1929, he added. Ordonez said the European Central Bank, of which he is a governing council member, would cut interest rates in January if inflation expectations went much below two percent. "If, among other variables, we observe that inflation expectations go much below two percent, it's logical that we will lower rates." Regarding the dire situation in the United States, Ordonez said he backed the decision by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates almost to zero in the face of profound deflation fears. Central banks are seeking to jumpstart movements on crucial interbank money markets that froze after the US market for high-risk, or subprime mortgages collapsed in mid 2007, and locked tighter after the US investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in mid September. Interbank markets are a key link in the chain which provides credit to businesses and households. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eagle Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 makes poor the new in thing. So the meek could inherit the earth after all .......... nah a certain, perhaps small, percentage of the rich will find ways to hang onto everything and increase the gap between rich and poor. the meek won't inherit sh*t. Exactly. There are no free rides. Being poor is no free ride. Now being rich and having off shore bank accounts while you sit in your yaht is kind of a free slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeusbheld Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 makes poor the new in thing. So the meek could inherit the earth after all .......... nah a certain, perhaps small, percentage of the rich will find ways to hang onto everything and increase the gap between rich and poor. the meek won't inherit sh*t. Exactly. There are no free rides. sure there are. born rich = free ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeusbheld Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 one of the more disturbing bits of economic news: Toyota's struggling. yep that's right, the company always cited in terms of how an auto company *should* be run is struggling. where are all those dipshits who were in various online forums when the housing bubble burst claiming "what recession"? they're awful quiet now. Condotown = Cassandra; he's seen something along these lines coming for a while (although it may not play out quite as hardcore as his scenario, hopefully some good will come of it in terms of people carrying less debt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treborz Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 And in related news...The Venetian Casino in Macau (an amazing place) has just sacked 500 employees who are not residents of Macau...about 20% of whom are ex-pats in management level positions. More gloom! That's surprising considering their biggest customer base is the Chinese and the Chinese economy is in the best state out of the lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eagle Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 As bad as things are for some it is always good to take a real look at ones life. Too many people have been living beyond their means and now are being forced to deal with reality. It sucks but had to happen sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esther4love Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 And in related news...The Venetian Casino in Macau (an amazing place) has just sacked 500 employees who are not residents of Macau...about 20% of whom are ex-pats in management level positions. More gloom! That's surprising considering their biggest customer base is the Chinese and the Chinese economy is in the best state out of the lot. Actually, in relative terms, I think Beej has more money (per capita) than does China. (P.S. Leeds sucks.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treborz Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 And in related news...The Venetian Casino in Macau (an amazing place) has just sacked 500 employees who are not residents of Macau...about 20% of whom are ex-pats in management level positions. More gloom! That's surprising considering their biggest customer base is the Chinese and the Chinese economy is in the best state out of the lot. Actually, in relative terms, I think Beej has more money (per capita) than does China. (P.S. Leeds sucks.) Who was that?? The Venetians are actually owned by 2 different people......the husband owns vegas and he gifted the macau venetian to his wife or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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