World Recession

[MisterMatlock]

Hong Kong and Singapore markets are also in the black today!!

WTF?

People are seeing bargains to be had I think.

Now is a WONDERFUL time for people with money that they're willing to invest.

I think I'm going to wait, still too much debt out there that needs to be mopped up.

Its all a bit knife edge, but if you have the balls and the money to waste, buy in now it could be a good investment if you can wait a couple of years.

I think it'll be contingent upon how much the US gov't sticks into the pot... There will be a deal done... Just depends on how much they're going to stick in... And when...

[luckyphil247]

Without the failed wars, terrible foreign policies, falling house prices and insane oil highs the US banking crisis might not have happened, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have happened. Those cowboys have been in power for 8 years, if this collapse is nothing to do with them then I'll buy a cowboy hat and run down Silom naked.

But don't you do that every weekend anyway ??? Or are they just rumours ???

[beej]

Without the failed wars, terrible foreign policies, falling house prices and insane oil highs the US banking crisis might not have happened, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have happened. Those cowboys have been in power for 8 years, if this collapse is nothing to do with them then I'll buy a cowboy hat and run down Silom naked.

But don't you do that every weekend anyway ??? Or are they just rumours ???

Rumors, I'm a quiet civil gent in person.

:wink:

[MisterMatlock]

Without the failed wars, terrible foreign policies, falling house prices and insane oil highs the US banking crisis might not have happened, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have happened. Those cowboys have been in power for 8 years, if this collapse is nothing to do with them then I'll buy a cowboy hat and run down Silom naked.

But don't you do that every weekend anyway ??? Or are they just rumours ???

Rumors, I'm a quiet civil gent in person.

:wink:

And I enjoy giving foot rubs to Afook...

[luckyphil247]

Personally , I think the U.S government shouldn't be bailing out wall street .

Let the people value the share market in a fair and unbiased way without any governments interfering with the TRUE market value . In the long term , I think it's better . Even though we may suffer a recession , I doubt that it will reach a depression .

There are many businesses out there that are still doing quite well , and I think even with this credit squeeze , Banks will still lend money to those businesses . Why ??? ..... Competition and because they can't afford to let good opportunities pass them by .

I think this will sort out the good from the bad . Companies that produce profits consistantly and don't carry too much debt are the diamonds that will shine through when this is all over .

[MisterMatlock]

Personally , I think the U.S government shouldn't be bailing out wall street .

Let the people value the share market in a fair and unbiased way without any governments interfering with the TRUE market value . In the long term , I think it's better . Even though we may suffer a recession , I doubt that it will reach a depression .

There are many businesses out there that are still doing quite well , and I think even with this credit squeeze , Banks will still lend money to those businesses . Why ??? ..... Competition and because they can't afford to let good opportunities pass them by .

I think this will sort out the good from the bad . Companies that produce profits consistantly and don't carry too much debt are the diamonds that will shine through when this is all over .

Companies doing quite well... Is this similar to how the BoT spokesperson said that Thai markets won't be affected by this crisis because they weren't tied to US markets?

[luckyphil247]

Also , I am looking into buying some more shares in the ASX in the next few days . Just want to wait a few more days in the hope of picking up some good bargains .

Looking for sound companies that pay good dividends . If I can get dividends that pay +5% return ; then I'm in for the long term

I have lost some money already , BUT only on paper 8)

[MisterMatlock]

Also , I am looking into buying some more shares in the ASX in the next few days . Just want to wait a few more days in the hope of picking up some good bargains .

Looking for sound companies that pay good dividends . If I can get dividends that pay +5% return ; then I'm in for the long term

I have lost some money already , BUT only on paper 8)

I'll agree with you on THAT strategy though.

[zeusbheld]

Without the failed wars, terrible foreign policies, falling house prices and insane oil highs the US banking crisis might not have happened, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have happened. Those cowboys have been in power for 8 years, if this collapse is nothing to do with them then I'll buy a cowboy hat and run down Silom naked.

But don't you do that every weekend anyway ??? Or are they just rumours ???

Rumors, I'm a quiet civil gent in person.

:wink:

i thought we'd met. apparently, i'm mistaken.

[zeusbheld]

...

Exponential growth cannot go on indefinitely. If the brakes aren't put on somehow or cyclical bubbles allowed to burst naturally, something akin to a "Malthusian catastrophe" will occur... yes.. it is a leap from population growth to economic growth,

it's a leap to apply malthus... however, correct me if i'm wrong, but seems your intent is more metaphorical, and it makes a hell of an illustration. i'd agree that exponential growth cannot go on indefinitely and restructuring needs to happen.

restructuring needed to happen in 1929 too... i'm just not sold that letting the market take care of it works; it failed miserably in 1929.

but I stand by my opinion that we should "ride this one out."

i'm not sold on that at all. we keep riding, the implosions keep coming, and there won't be anything left except an ever growing gap between rich and poor, a great many of whom wil be unemployed while the fat cats moan that their portfolios have shrunk to a mere 100 million.

By the way, Bombay stock market appears to be up today.

the high tech industry migrated to India a while ago.

also, i don't think this is a one-day/one-patch-or-not sort of situation. this is a mess that either way will take years to untangle. how it is approached is not a question of whether it will happen, but how much blood will be spilled. and blood, like ****, flows downhill. joe lunchpail, bitching about how the gov't shouldn't 'bail out wall street', is the one going to bite the dust. but hey, Joe lunchpail never should have been offered--or accepted---a mortgage, car loan or credit card anyway, so **** him and his late, great 401(k).

i read the bill and the bottom line is the so-called bailout isn't a bailout at all, merely something to slow down the momentum enough so that rather than reaching terminal velocity the economy declines slowly enough to not end in a grease spot.

[zeusbheld]

short version: for all you Americans who spent the last 30 years or so crowing about the 'virtues' of deregulating the financial industry,

F*CK YOU.

[condotown]

Kiplinger's has put together a list of 10 things that you, fair consumer, can expect from our new post-wall-street-apocalypse economy. Should you be scared? Maybe.

Here's a quick summary of the article, which can be found here:

1. A much less leveraged economy ? Cash will be the thing to have.

2. More modest rewards ? Less risk-taking means slower growth, slower appreciation of property value, etc.

3. A feast for bottom fishers ? If you've got patience and cash, there will be a feast for you amongst the wreckage.

4. Fewer financial firms ? Big banks are swallowing the smaller ones.

5. More government oversight of financial markets. ? They're gonna be watching.

6. But a revival of private financial firms ? Kiplinger's doesn't think that investment banks are gone for good.

7. Simpler forms of securitizing debt ? Nor do they think that the secondary mortgage market is gone for good. They say it will be back, but it won't be as 'exotic'

8. Greater scrutiny of executive compensation ? Shareholders are annoyed. Very annoyed.

9. Higher taxes and/or a bigger federal deficit ? Someone has to pay to run the bilge pump.

10. Higher long-term interest rates ? You saw that one coming, didn't you?

Hey, it turns out that the new post-apocalyptic economy is pretty much just the old traditional economy ? but with a debt hangover.

[beej]

But wheres the risk. It sounds like a school detention.

:cry:

[eagle]

But wheres the risk. It sounds like a school detention.

:cry:[/quot

Unfortunately alot of the people affected by these wealthy boneheads playing with other peoples money will not feel like school detention :twisted: Elderly losing their lifes saving etc. :shock:

[Dave40]

There will be a conspiracy theory somewhere down the track on this meltdown!!! :roll: :roll:

[Cosmo]

Hey, there may be a rescue afterall....

There are reports that all those Congressmen/women who voted against it, have been deluged with angry calls from their constituents demanding that they vote for the rescue package.... :twisted:

And there are speculations that a revised Paulson package will be approved this Thursday... :roll:

Then again, there were reports of a deal which turned out to be a no deal.

So fingers crossed this time around... :roll:

[Exploring]

I do pray the better thing gonna happen soon wheter we will have bail out

plan or not. One thing i can do is that hold my job so tight....LOL

I would prefer not to only recieve the money "one way" anymore because

I will have sort of huge cost buying coffee at starbuck twice a day . hahaha

[eagle]

There will be a conspiracy theory somewhere down the track on this meltdown!!! :roll: :roll:

its the old conspiracy of rip off scams. Did they just mess up whooops sorry , I don't think so. Greed comes alive when there is a big bucket of money to dip into. :twisted:

[zeusbheld]

Kiplinger's has put together a list of 10 things that you, fair consumer, can expect from our new post-wall-street-apocalypse economy. Should you be scared? Maybe.

Here's a quick summary of the article, which can be found here:

1. A much less leveraged economy ? Cash will be the thing to have.

2. More modest rewards ? Less risk-taking means slower growth, slower appreciation of property value, etc.

3. A feast for bottom fishers ? If you've got patience and cash, there will be a feast for you amongst the wreckage.

4. Fewer financial firms ? Big banks are swallowing the smaller ones.

5. More government oversight of financial markets. ? They're gonna be watching.

6. But a revival of private financial firms ? Kiplinger's doesn't think that investment banks are gone for good.

7. Simpler forms of securitizing debt ? Nor do they think that the secondary mortgage market is gone for good. They say it will be back, but it won't be as 'exotic'

8. Greater scrutiny of executive compensation ? Shareholders are annoyed. Very annoyed.

9. Higher taxes and/or a bigger federal deficit ? Someone has to pay to run the bilge pump.

10. Higher long-term interest rates ? You saw that one coming, didn't you?

Hey, it turns out that the new post-apocalyptic economy is pretty much just the old traditional economy ? but with a debt hangover.

this is interesting, got a link?

does seem to presuppose some sort of rescue, thus the 'bilge pump' comment, although they may be referring to the sort of bilge we've seen so far (AIG rescue etc).

[condotown]

ZBH >>> http://consumerist.com/5056852/10-things-to-expect-from-the-new-post+apocalyptic-economy

[zeusbheld]

ZBH >>> http://consumerist.com/5056852/10-things-to-expect-from-the-new-post+apocalyptic-economy

ah! thank you very much sir.

here's a couple of links,

and one powerpoint. they're kind of old, but still relevant (and entertaining)

[PJack]

Kiplinger's has put together a list of 10 things that you, fair consumer, can expect from our new post-wall-street-apocalypse economy. Should you be scared? Maybe.

Here's a quick summary of the article, which can be found here:

1. A much less leveraged economy ? Cash will be the thing to have.

2. More modest rewards ? Less risk-taking means slower growth, slower appreciation of property value, etc.

3. A feast for bottom fishers ? If you've got patience and cash, there will be a feast for you amongst the wreckage.

4. Fewer financial firms ? Big banks are swallowing the smaller ones.

5. More government oversight of financial markets. ? They're gonna be watching.

6. But a revival of private financial firms ? Kiplinger's doesn't think that investment banks are gone for good.

7. Simpler forms of securitizing debt ? Nor do they think that the secondary mortgage market is gone for good. They say it will be back, but it won't be as 'exotic'

8. Greater scrutiny of executive compensation ? Shareholders are annoyed. Very annoyed.

9. Higher taxes and/or a bigger federal deficit ? Someone has to pay to run the bilge pump.

10. Higher long-term interest rates ? You saw that one coming, didn't you?

Hey, it turns out that the new post-apocalyptic economy is pretty much just the old traditional economy ? but with a debt hangover.

this is interesting, got a link?

does seem to presuppose some sort of rescue, thus the 'bilge pump' comment, although they may be referring to the sort of bilge we've seen so far (AIG rescue etc).

I found the Kiplinger list uninspiring and not exactly mega insightful, to be blunt. I mean even an idiot like me could have nailed most of those points.

Except for no. 8. salaries for top executives will not be cut in half. since when do shareholders determine salaries of top executives. the market does. and if the executive is growing the company and making money he/she will be in a position to demand their salary. if the government takes over the company then I might agree with the point but that wasnt the scenario.

[condotown]

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/pdf/senatebillAYO08C32_xml.pdf

Link above is to the 451 page downloadable US Senate financial bailout bill.

... in all its glorious earmarked pork barrel goodness....

If McCain's camp wants to win the election, all they have to do is to instruct Palin to voice that she is clearly against it in her debate with Biden.

[Bruce551]

Show Us the Hope

October 2, 2008

Editorial

NY Times

Falling house prices are driving the collapse of the financial system. But the bailout bill, even the ?sweetened? version that was approved by the Senate Wednesday night, does little to avert the defaults and foreclosures that are pushing house values ever downward.

At last count, six million people were expected to default on their mortgages this year and next, putting them at risk of losing their homes unless they can catch up in their payments or catch a break on their loan terms. And they?re not the only ones at risk. As prices drop, millions of people who have never missed a mortgage payment stand to lose their home equity.

Leaving these Americans out of the bailout bill is unwise and unfair, but neither Congress nor the Bush administration has ever shown anywhere near the sense of urgency to rescue homeowners at the bottom of the collapse as they have for the financiers at the top of it.

Take, for example, a new government program that took effect on Wednesday with the aim of helping as many as 400,000 struggling homeowners keep their homes. Even before it got started, the program ? called Hope for Homeowners ? was looking like a lead balloon.

Under the program, the government will insure up to $300 billion in new, more affordable loans for troubled borrowers. For the insurance to kick in, however, lenders must first voluntarily refinance the delinquent mortgages by reducing the loan balances to 90 percent of the home?s current market value.

In exchange, lenders would avoid the expense of foreclosure and uncertainty about being repaid. The government would stem the social and economic damage of more foreclosures, at presumably little risk to taxpayers.

There?s just one problem. At a Congressional hearing in September, lenders were lukewarm about participating in the new program ? reluctant, it seems, to take the loss that comes with reducing loan balances.

The lenders, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and CitiMortgage, a unit of Citigroup, all said they were taking other steps to help troubled borrowers, like reducing a loan?s interest rate or extending its term. That?s helpful, but the industry?s efforts don?t go far enough: defaults and foreclosures continue to outstrip efforts to rework bad loans.

As home prices fall, the most effective modification is to reduce the loan balance; otherwise, borrowers are in the position of repaying a loan higher than the value of the property. That burden can become unbearable when combined with unemployment or reduced work hours or unexpected expenses like medical bills.

There are two sides to the mortgage mess. The mortgage industry, in pursuit of upfront fees, deliberately made loans to people who could not afford the payments over time. They justified their actions on the self-serving and unsound basis that rising home values would forever postpone a day of reckoning.

Many borrowers ? naively, foolishly or selfishly ? took on those loans. Yet well over a year into the housing bust, the mortgage industry still calls the shots, as if it is a victim of the borrowers.

Congress could change that dynamic, by amending the bankruptcy code to allow the court to modify troubled mortgages. But lawmakers still are afraid to hold the industry accountable. Instead, they are offering Hope for Homeowners that looks to be anything but.

[condotown]

A related article written about 4 years ago warning about how throwing money at the problem was just delaying it.

http://mises.org/story/1670