World Recession

[Cosmo]

Wisit Ongpipatkul of Tisco Research foresees lower US interest rates soon. PHAKRIT JUNTAWONG

Thai stocks nosedived 2.86% yesterday as Asian and European markets closed lower over growing fears that the US "Big Mac" crisis was spreading to banks across the world. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed yesterday at 601.29 points, down 17.68, in trade worth 10.05 billion baht. Shares fell under the 600-point line to a low of 598.59 in the afternoon before rebounding slightly before the close.

Blue-chip stocks fared worse than the overall market, with the SET50 index off 3.37% on the day. Energy stocks led the market, dropping 3.39% for the day, while banks fell 3.7% and ICT stocks closed off 2.21%.

Foreign investors, net sellers of over 130 billion baht in stock this year, were net sellers of 1.3 billion baht yesterday.

The losses mirrored the rest of the region, with Hong Kong dropping 4.3%, Tokyo down 1.26% and Sydney off 2%. :evil:

Analysts said the expected passage of a $700-billion bailout package by the US Congress to buy bad debt from ailing banks did little to ease fears that the global economy is heading for a recession.

Reports that the Belgian-Dutch banking and insurance group Fortis and the British mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley both needed government intervention only added to fears that more banks could fail due to the ailing US economy.

The Hong Kong market was hammered yesterday as the leading Chinese insurer Ping An fell 10.5% on concerns about its exposure to Fortis. The Dah Sing Banking Group also suffered losses over concerns over its exposure to failed US bank Washington Mutual.

Wisit Ongpipatkul, an executive director and head of Tisco Research, said the US crisis would have a lasting impact on equity markets around the world.

The SET index, down 27.87% from January, was likely to recover by the second half of 2009 on the back of local investment flows, he said.

But the crisis would cut export growth for Thailand in 2009 and could result in local banks posting lower profits.

Tisco currently recommends investors hold up to 60% of assets in the money market, with the remainder split between high-dividend and fundamental stocks.

Mr Wisit said US interest rates were likely to be cut sharply over the next few months, possibly leading to a rate cut by the Bank of Thailand in 2009.

Tawatchai Asawapornchai, a vice-president at Globlex Securities, said fear of a US economic recession and tensions in the global financial sector were pressuring equity markets worldwide. :evil:

"We could see the SET index continue to drop this week. There just isn't any good news for investors now," he said.

black Monday.

Thanks for this info...about trade at SET, i also suggest to read report from Phatra brokerage, their research team is more professional.

Huh? i don't know about stock much but just sad about the world economic and thailand at the same time ka Van said we need to save money and worry about The bank too :wink:

Yes, you are right...need to save money and worry about banks closing down - even in Thailand.

A repeat of the 1997 financial meltdown in Asia could occur again.

Brace yourself.

[GoldMember]

The markets have been artificially propped up for way too long ever since Greenspan flooded the world with cheap money in an attempt to sort out the tech crash .Bubbles were blown blah dee blah.....everyone spent like nuts and now its payback time.State intervention doesnt work.It's best let the markets find their natural equilibrium and take the pain now.....as opposed to delaying and suffering far greater pain later .Interest rate cuts are hopeless(as has already been shown) and with only 2% to play with,just another bandaid(albeit in an emptier packet).Checkout Japan in the 90s/early2000s for historical similarities.Replace the sushi with a KFC party bucket and bon appetit.

[condotown]

The markets have been artificially propped up for way too long ever since Greenspan flooded the world with cheap money in an attempt to sort out the tech crash .Bubbles were blown blah dee blah.....everyone spent like nuts and now its payback time.State intervention doesnt work.It's best let the markets find their natural equilibrium and take the pain now.....as opposed to delaying and suffering far greater pain later .Interest rate cuts are hopeless(as has already been shown) and with only 2% to play with,just another bandaid(albeit in an emptier packet).Checkout Japan in the 90s/early2000s for historical similarities.Replace the sushi with a KFC party bucket and bon appetit.

Agreed...

We're screwed.... for the time being.

[WHISKERS]

Who is going to bailout the American taxpayer?? Approximately 9,000 homes or small businesses are being foreclosed every day. These same taxpayers have lost most of their retirement funds since most company's retirement plans include investment in the stock market. Now the world expects them to bailout Wall Street . . . ??? . . .

Why foreclose on these people?? . . . revalue the homes, rewrite the mortgages:

allow them to pay something . . and keep their homes. The government can then bailout the difference.

In the early 1980's, the government de-regulated laws which would not allow financial institutions to buyout other financial institutions. What happened was smaller financial firms got swallowed up by the bigger ones. These smaller institutions were not necessarily in any financial crisis. In fact, many were doing quite nicely as they were able to specialize and give much better service than their bigger counterparts. Suddenly property values skyrocketed. People who had bought their homes for $30,000 now found their home was worth $300,000. Then . . .

The telemarketers came . . . "Use your equity!!" "Buy that second car!!" "Take that long vacation you always wanted!!" "Add on a new family room!!"

Day after day . . . hour after hour . . . and yes the American taxpayer bit. It didn't take long before all Americans were refinancing and using this new found equity . . . but alas . . . the paychecks weren't growing as fast as the property values. The whole process was dommed to fail from the beginning.

If they want a bailout plan that will work . . . then they need to bailout the American taxpayer too.

[eagle]

Who is going to bailout the American taxpayer?? Approximately 9,000 homes or small businesses are being foreclosed every day. These same taxpayers have lost most of their retirement funds since most company's retirement plans include investment in the stock market. Now the world expects them to bailout Wall Street . . . ??? . . .

Why foreclose on these people?? . . . revalue the homes, rewrite the mortgages:

allow them to pay something . . and keep their homes. The government can then bailout the difference.

In the early 1980's, the government de-regulated laws which would not allow financial institutions to buyout other financial institutions. What happened was smaller financial firms got swallowed up by the bigger ones. These smaller institutions were not necessarily in any financial crisis. In fact, many were doing quite nicely as they were able to specialize and give much better service than their bigger counterparts. Suddenly property values skyrocketed. People who had bought their homes for $30,000 now found their home was worth $300,000. Then . . .

The telemarketers came . . . "Use your equity!!" "Buy that second car!!" "Take that long vacation you always wanted!!" "Add on a new family room!!"

Day after day . . . hour after hour . . . and yes the American taxpayer bit. It didn't take long before all Americans were refinancing and using this new found equity . . . but alas . . . the paychecks weren't growing as fast as the property values. The whole process was dommed to fail from the beginning.

If they want a bailout plan that will work . . . then they need to bailout the American taxpayer too.

I agree ! Its like BUsh has to screw American one more time before he is out of office. Do I hold him responsible ? Yes absolutely, it just another failed business venture for lil Georgie :twisted:

[DJTX]

I agree ! Its like BUsh has to screw American one more time before he is out of office. Do I hold him responsible ? Yes absolutely, it just another failed business venture for lil Georgie :twisted:

While I agree Bush hasn't been the best president the US has had (by a long shot), I have to shake my head at people who blame only him and/or the Republicans. The entire mess has a lot of blame to go around - the private sector via their greed, and both the Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The entire blame isn't Bush's.

[beej]

I agree ! Its like BUsh has to screw American one more time before he is out of office. Do I hold him responsible ? Yes absolutely, it just another failed business venture for lil Georgie :twisted:

While I agree Bush hasn't been the best president the US has had (by a long shot), I have to shake my head at people who blame only him and/or the Republicans. The entire mess has a lot of blame to go around - the private sector via their greed, and both the Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The entire blame isn't Bush's.

The US would have a LOT less debt, and more liquidity if it wasn't for Bush's wanker policies and warmongering.

Without the failed wars, terrible foreign policies, falling house prices and insane oil highs the US banking crisis might not have happened, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have happened. Those cowboys have been in power for 8 years, if this collapse is nothing to do with them then I'll buy a cowboy hat and run down Silom naked.

[zeusbheld]

.....everyone spent like nuts and now its payback time.State intervention doesnt work.It's best let the markets find their natural equilibrium and take the pain now.....

?It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.?

---Andrew Mellon, US Secretary of the Treasury, 1929.

[beej]

?It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.?

---Andrew Mellon, US Secretary of the Treasury, 1929.

''The rich will make millions out of this balls up, the poor will be left with plummeting house prices lack of loans and loss of jobs, most will just roll over and take it, working harder is not an option any more as everyone's forgotten how to do it''

--- Chris Beej, UK Jobless and Uneducated under secretary 2008.

[zeusbheld]

the careful observer will note that for the unemployed, working harder has no effect.

let's say you are unemployed and work five times harder.... 5*0=0

[zeusbheld]

Who is going to bailout the American taxpayer?? Approximately 9,000 homes or small businesses are being foreclosed every day. These same taxpayers have lost most of their retirement funds since most company's retirement plans include investment in the stock market. Now the world expects them to bailout Wall Street . . . ??? . . .

hmmmmm so by not "bailing out wall street" the market drops over 700 points. remind me what happened to ma and pa Kettle's 401(k) plan yesterday?

[condotown]

Unlike the crash of 1929, this time the bankers and wealthy have their assets protected offshore in tax free accounts.

Adding liquidity (passing the bill in US congress) will only add to the problem....and postpone the big meltdown... Listen to the politicians.. they only want to put broke and desperate people deeper into debt by pumping liquidity into banks to lend more money to people to buy more consumer goods....

Let's ride this one out and get it over with.. Let businesses and banks go under... Let people get back into the soup lines. Then make the new system more transparent led by common sense so that the economy can grow at a realistic and manageable rate.

Responsible people who have been dealing in cash have been suffering with ever rising prices due to people who cannot afford to buy those things ... borrowing to buy them.

[Dave40]

Hey van The Aussie Stockmarket hasn't gone down as much as the dow did last nite it's down (162) points at the moment, our banking sector is well regulated and Kev (747) Rudd said we are in a better position than some of the other countries around the world!!!

If China goes down than we are well and truly stuffed, (no more Pilbara) good luck!!!!!

[Cosmo]

Hey van The Aussie Stockmarket hasn't gone down as much as the dow did last nite it's down (162) points at the moment, our banking sector is well regulated and Kev (747) Rudd said we are in a better position than some of the other countries around the world!!!

If China goes down than we are well and truly stuffed, (no more Pilbara) good luck!!!!!

Hey Dave,

How are you holding up?

Thanks for good luck wishes...I am doing ok today... no complaints here.. :roll: , well not yet...

[zeusbheld]

Unlike the crash of 1929, this time the bankers and wealthy have their assets protected offshore in tax free accounts.

Adding liquidity (passing the bill in US congress) will only add to the problem....and postpone the big meltdown... Listen to the politicians.. they only want to put broke and desperate people deeper into debt by pumping liquidity into banks to lend more money to people to buy more consumer goods....

Let's ride this one out and get it over with.. Let businesses and banks go under... Let people get back into the soup lines. Then make the new system more transparent led by common sense so that the economy can grow at a realistic and manageable rate.

Responsible people who have been dealing in cash have been suffering with ever rising prices due to people who cannot afford to buy those things ... borrowing to buy them.

good plan! it worked SO WELL for Mellon.

so the banks and businesses go under, it of course won't have *any* effect on that cash that the virtuous have stockpiled?

so if you broke your leg doing something stupid---cut it off and hope a better, smarter leg grows back? hey, works for lizards.

[DJTX]

The US would have a LOT less debt, and more liquidity if it wasn't for Bush's wanker policies and warmongering.

Without the failed wars, terrible foreign policies, falling house prices and insane oil highs the US banking crisis might not have happened, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have happened. Those cowboys have been in power for 8 years, if this collapse is nothing to do with them then I'll buy a cowboy hat and run down Silom naked.

The US has almost always had 'debt'. You may mean they'd have a lot less of a deficit (like Clinton or not - he balanced the budget and had no deficit). And I agree with you about failed policies. BUT - it is still the Congress that passes the laws and controls the budget. They are all to blame. Best thing the US can do - vote every last one of them out of office. Most Americans would agree - vote them all out. Unfortunately most also think - all means everyone except my representative - he/she is doing fine. LOL

[beej]

1 TRILLION bucks knocked off of stocks in one single trading day in the US.

I've got the hammer, anyone got the nails?

[condotown]

Unlike the crash of 1929, this time the bankers and wealthy have their assets protected offshore in tax free accounts.

Adding liquidity (passing the bill in US congress) will only add to the problem....and postpone the big meltdown... Listen to the politicians.. they only want to put broke and desperate people deeper into debt by pumping liquidity into banks to lend more money to people to buy more consumer goods....

Let's ride this one out and get it over with.. Let businesses and banks go under... Let people get back into the soup lines. Then make the new system more transparent led by common sense so that the economy can grow at a realistic and manageable rate.

Responsible people who have been dealing in cash have been suffering with ever rising prices due to people who cannot afford to buy those things ... borrowing to buy them.

good plan! it worked SO WELL for Mellon.

so the banks and businesses go under, it of course won't have *any* effect on that cash that the virtuous have stockpiled?

so if you broke your leg doing something stupid---cut it off and hope a better, smarter leg grows back? hey, works for lizards.

Exponential growth cannot go on indefinitely. If the brakes aren't put on somehow or cyclical bubbles allowed to burst naturally, something akin to a "Malthusian catastrophe" will occur... yes.. it is a leap from population growth to economic growth, but I stand by my opinion that we should "ride this one out."

By the way, Bombay stock market appears to be up today.

[beej]

Some great buys to be had today on the UK markets.

Shocked at the ftse only dropping a little this morning, not the expected panic!

I might go and do some real work today!

[condotown]

Hong Kong and Singapore markets are also in the black today!!

WTF?

[Bruce551]

Wall Street, large corporations and their lobbyists own the Federal Government and both parties, and (therefore) they always win. Professor Roubini:

Thus, the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer.

And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown . . . . This is again a case of privatizing the gains and socializing the losses; a bailout and socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street.

And it is a scandal that even Congressional Democrats have fallen for this Treasury scam that does little to resolve the debt burden of millions of distressed home owners.

[beej]

Hong Kong and Singapore markets are also in the black today!!

WTF?

People are seeing bargains to be had I think.

[Ngairo]

Wall Street, large corporations and their lobbyists own the Federal Government and both parties, and (therefore) they always win. Professor Roubini:

Thus, the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer.

And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown . . . . This is again a case of privatizing the gains and socializing the losses; a bailout and socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street.

And it is a scandal that even Congressional Democrats have fallen for this Treasury scam that does little to resolve the debt burden of millions of distressed home owners.

Remember the governments don't run the monetry system....they only enforce the laws to make the taxpayeres pay for it.......

Nathan Rothchild was 41 times wealthier than Bill Gates is today back in 1932....never paid a dime in tax all his life.....

Compounding interest is a great thing when you can earn it.....but a killer when you have to pay for it......

With only 10% equity across all the markets today....we are in for a big 'Disney Parade'.....

[MisterMatlock]

Hong Kong and Singapore markets are also in the black today!!

WTF?

People are seeing bargains to be had I think.

Now is a WONDERFUL time for people with money that they're willing to invest.

[beej]

Hong Kong and Singapore markets are also in the black today!!

WTF?

People are seeing bargains to be had I think.

Now is a WONDERFUL time for people with money that they're willing to invest.

I think I'm going to wait, still too much debt out there that needs to be mopped up.

Its all a bit knife edge, but if you have the balls and the money to waste, buy in now it could be a good investment if you can wait a couple of years.