Myanmar Storm-Update

[Bruce551]

Update: 9 May

WHEN the most terrible storm in living memory struck southern Myanmar on the night of May 2nd-3rd, the people under it probably did not know what hit them. Yet India's meteorological department had given the Burmese government 48 hours' notice of how severe Cyclone Nargis would be, and where it would strike land. The country's military dictators broadcast some warnings over state media. But they organised no evacuations or other measures to limit casualties as the tempest approached. Since then, their response to the emergency has been feeble.

The cyclone lifted a vast mass of sea-water and hurled it on low-lying villages on the delta, sweeping away tens of thousands of people. Further inland, winds of up to 120mph (192kph) flattened buildings and caused many more casualties. As The Economist went to press, the death toll looked likely to exceed 100,000. With a further 1m homeless and many more without fresh water, more deaths from disease and starvation seem inevitable.

Burma military dictators are still impeding International relief efforts.

When will democratic nations act to free the Burmese people from these monsters?

:?:

[eagle]

I'm amazed that People I know don;t know about this yet. You would think the world would come to help. The heart says yes so why not , Politics :twisted:

[Loburt]

When will democratic nations act to free the Burmese people from these monsters?

:?:

When China stops standing in the way.

[Loburt]

You would think the world would come to help. The heart says yes so why not , Politics :twisted:

The world is trying. Gen. Than Shwe is not allowing it to happen.

[eagle]

You would think the world would come to help. The heart says yes so why not , Politics :twisted:

The world is trying. Gen. Than Shwe is not allowing it to happen.

thanks for the insight !! Its a dam shame !

[zeusbheld]

lost the link, but the storm may cause even more unrest, to the point that conceivably the junta could topple. according to the article, Burmese tend to follow the chinese concept of the "mandate of heaven" and something like this is perceived as divine punishment--the leadership have lost the mandate of heaven.

if EVERYONE in burma is willing to die to get rid of these douchebags then it's a lot different than a few thousand, or a few hundred thousand, protestors. if people reach a boiling point, i doubt the junta could stop them. also, there is some sort of referendum coming up; was supposed to be a non-event, might now be quite an event.

yeah "democratic nations" should "free the Burmese people." that worked out sooooo well in Iraq :roll:

:idea: we could send Stallone!

[Loburt]

In 1988, people in just about every major town and city all across Burma rose up against the regime. Not just a few thousand.

Students, workers, nurses, monks, government officials and even families of soldiers were on the streets demanding the military step down from power.

The army slaughtered them.

August 8, 2008, the day China will open the Beijing Olympics, will be the twentieth anniversary of that slaughter. Auspicious, indeed.

Unrest is surely coming. But mandate of heaven or not, the people know the army won't hesitate to shoot. Portents serve more to scare the generals than embolden the people.

There are probably only two scenarios that will bring about change: Outside intervention, which is not going to happen and would be dangerous if it did.

Or, a faction within the military turns on the leaders and seizes power, which is not impossible, but not something I would bet money on.

[zeusbheld]

now how about the 'outside intervention' scenario---can anyone think of a plausible, effective approach?

edit: i mean aside from the obvious one of China suddenly repudiating the junta and pressuring them to leave.

even assuming china would be neutral (unlikely) i can't think of any...

[CiaranM]

In 1988, people in just about every major town and city all across Burma rose up against the regime. Not just a few thousand.

Students, workers, nurses, monks, government officials and even families of soldiers were on the streets demanding the military step down from power.

The army slaughtered them.

August 8, 2008, the day China will open the Beijing Olympics, will be the twentieth anniversary of that slaughter. Auspicious, indeed.

Unrest is surely coming. But mandate of heaven or not, the people know the army won't hesitate to shoot. Portents serve more to scare the generals than embolden the people.

There are probably only two scenarios that will bring about change: Outside intervention, which is not going to happen and would be dangerous if it did.

Or, a faction within the military turns on the leaders and seizes power, which is not impossible, but not something I would bet money on.

good post ... it's heartbreaking to see what's happening in burma, but difficult to see how the situation will change unless the international community acts as one ... but what's the chances of that !!!

[CiaranM]

just how f**king evil r these ***** in charge of burma ??

YANGON, Myanmar - Myanmar's refusal to give visas to relief experts is "unprecedented" in the history of humanitarian work, the United Nations charged Friday.

A spokesman of the World Food Program says the organization has submitted 10 visa applications around the world, including six in Bangkok, Thailand, and none of have been granted.

Spokesman Paul Risley said Friday "the frustration caused by what appears to be a paperwork delay is unprecedented in modern humanitarian relief efforts."

Myanmar's military government said more than 62,000 people died or are missing in a cyclone that hit the country's Irrawaddy delta last Saturday. The junta says it needs international aid but not the foreign experts and staff to deliver it.

No visas are expected to be issued in Bangkok on Friday because of a Thai holiday.

[zeusbheld]

In 1988, people in just about every major town and city all across Burma rose up against the regime. Not just a few thousand.

Students, workers, nurses, monks, government officials and even families of soldiers were on the streets demanding the military step down from power.

The army slaughtered them.

August 8, 2008, the day China will open the Beijing Olympics, will be the twentieth anniversary of that slaughter. Auspicious, indeed.

Unrest is surely coming. But mandate of heaven or not, the people know the army won't hesitate to shoot. Portents serve more to scare the generals than embolden the people.

There are probably only two scenarios that will bring about change: Outside intervention, which is not going to happen and would be dangerous if it did.

Or, a faction within the military turns on the leaders and seizes power, which is not impossible, but not something I would bet money on.

good post ... it's heartbreaking to see what's happening in burma, but difficult to see how the situation will change unless the international community acts as one ... but what's the chances of that !!!

short of invading burma, exactly what is it you think the international community can DO if they act as one?

sanctions? yeah that sure worked in Cuba. or are you advocating invasion? so exactly what should the international community be DOING??

[CiaranM]

In 1988, people in just about every major town and city all across Burma rose up against the regime. Not just a few thousand.

Students, workers, nurses, monks, government officials and even families of soldiers were on the streets demanding the military step down from power.

The army slaughtered them.

August 8, 2008, the day China will open the Beijing Olympics, will be the twentieth anniversary of that slaughter. Auspicious, indeed.

Unrest is surely coming. But mandate of heaven or not, the people know the army won't hesitate to shoot. Portents serve more to scare the generals than embolden the people.

There are probably only two scenarios that will bring about change: Outside intervention, which is not going to happen and would be dangerous if it did.

Or, a faction within the military turns on the leaders and seizes power, which is not impossible, but not something I would bet money on.

good post ... it's heartbreaking to see what's happening in burma, but difficult to see how the situation will change unless the international community acts as one ... but what's the chances of that !!!

short of invading burma, exactly what is it you think the international community can DO if they act as one?

sanctions? yeah that sure worked in Cuba. or are you advocating invasion? so exactly what should the international community be DOING??

yeah i would say sanctions ... they might not have worked in cuba, but they had support from china and russia. and eventually they proved successful in south africa. however, obviously they need to be universal otherwise they will not work !!!! so the support of countries like china and india (however unlikely) is essential !!!

[CiaranM]

it just seems to get worse and worse .... if it was a movie u would say it was unbelieveable ... they are actually turing aid workers away !!

YANGON (Reuters) - Myanmar will accept foreign aid but distribute relief itself, an official newspaper said on Friday, after a disaster rescue team from Qatar that arrived in Yangon on an aid flight was turned back.

"Myanmar is not in a position to receive rescue and information teams from foreign countries at the moment," the government-run Myanma Ahlin newspaper said in a report on the aid operation slowly building up for survivors of Cyclone Nargis.

"But at present Myanmar is giving priority to receiving relief aid and distributing them to the storm-hit regions with its own resources," the newspaper said.

The Qatar plane was one of 12 international relief flights that landed in the former capital on Thursday, it said.

Outside frustration is mounting at delays by the generals in giving visas to aid workers and landing rights for flights, including those from the U.S. military, which has supply planes on standby in neighboring Thailand.

Survivors of last Saturday's cyclone have largely been fending for themselves in the swampy delta.

"They are gone. They are gone," U Thein, who lost her 8-year-old son and 3-month-old daughter in the cyclone, whispered in her village near hard-hit Labutta town in the delta.

Around her, in hushed tones, villagers say more than 100 of their friends and relatives were killed in Saturday's carnage. The sea surge and 120 mph (190 kmh) winds ripped the tiny village apart, tearing down coconut groves and ripping the roofs off buildings, including the local primary school.

Scores of trees block pathways or balance precariously on top of the few buildings left standing.

Besides the cawing of crows and gentle weeping of the destitute, the only sound is the hammering of nails as villagers desperately try to rebuild their homes in the malaria-infested swamplands.

No soldiers or government agencies have turned up to help.

"We have to get shelter. We have to get shelter," said San Myint. She and her brother have been sawing and hammering since dawn to repair their shattered home. "The mosquitoes are eating us at night," she says. "But we were lucky. We survived."

The official death toll still stands at nearly 23,000, although experts fear it could be as high as 100,000.

PATRIOTIC REFERENDUM

Myanmar's junta urged citizens on Friday to do their patriotic duty and vote for an army-drafted constitution in a televised message that made mo mention of the estimated 1.5 million people clinging to survival a week after the cyclone.

The junta is holding a referendum on the constitution on Saturday in all but the worst-affected parts of the country. Its opponents have suggested the delays in allowing in aid workers are because it does not want an influx of foreigners before the vote.

Thailand's prime minister Samak Sundaravej announced on Friday he would fly to Myanmar this weekend after British and American envoys urged him to ask the ruling generals to open the door to Western aid.

"I have already contacted them. I will see them on Sunday," Samak told reporters after meeting British Ambassador Quinton Quayle in Bangkok.

The U.S. Navy said four ships, including the destroyer USS Mustin and the three-vessel Essex Expeditionary Strike Force, were heading for Myanmar from the Gulf of Thailand after the Essex deployed helicopters to Thailand for aid operations.

The United States, however, was waiting for approval to start shipping in aid on military planes.

"We're outraged by the slowness of the response of the government of Burma to welcome and accept assistance," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad told reporters.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was seeking direct talks with the junta's senior general, Than Shwe, to persuade him to remove obstacles. A U.N. spokeswoman said Ban believed it might be "prudent" for the government to postpone the referendum.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Friday he wanted Southeast Asian nations and China to apply more pressure on Myanmar. "The Burmese regime is behaving appallingly," he said.

But U.N. humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes questioned the value of voicing outrage with the junta over the aid delays.

"It's not clear to me at this stage anyway that bludgeoning them over the head is going to make any difference or make it any better. We have to work with them," he told U.S. National Public Radio.

While Holmes said the United Nations estimated at least 1.5 million people were "severely affected," Britain's U.N. ambassador, John Sawers, said it may be in the millions.

China, the closest thing Myanmar has to an ally, urged patience in dealing with the junta.

"(The international community) should take Myanmar's willingness and ability to receive (the aid) into full account, and have patient and close communication with Myanmar," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters.

[PJack]

It seems PM Samak is missing a golden opportunity.

He could have taken this tragedy and inserted himself as a broker, negotiator, and eventually savoir of (perhaps) thousands of Burmese citizens, face saving for Burmese Junta, and show his Thai citizens back home that he can be a Statesman after all these years in politics.

Even if he failed, he could have spun it this way.

Samak the Statesman.

Maybe he will hire me for PR ideas.

Actually, this could be argued for any top Thai politician. Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama, maybe? Or how about Chatchai Choonhovan who is the ASEAN liaison (I believe). He just stood on Aljazeera interview saying how Samak wont do anything cause he doesnt care about Burmese democracy and citizens, not really. So why isnt Choonhovan doing something?

Where are the Statesman?

Somebody dust off Anand Panyrarchun and give him some coffee and send him in.?

[Loburt]

Chatichai Choonhavan has been dead for at least five years.

[PJack]

Chatichai Choonhavan has been dead for at least five years.

Kraisak Choonhavan, maybe?

thanks. Lopburi. I got a little carried away.

[Loburt]

The person you're talking about is Kraisak Choonhavan.

He holds no government position at the moment, so there is no reason for the Burmese, who are not letting aid workers in, to let him in.

What is it you want him to do?

The Burmese generals are also not going to listen to their "friend" Samak. I'm sure they see him as a greedy buffoon who will do their bidding for the sake of business deals.

But they aren't going to let him tell them what to do.

[PJack]

The person you're talking about is Kraisak Choonhavan.

He holds no government position at the moment, so there is no reason for the Burmese, who are not letting aid workers in, to let him in.

What is it you want him to do?

The Burmese generals are also not going to listen to their "friend" Samak. I'm sure they see him as a greedy buffoon who will do their bidding for the sake of business deals.

But they aren't going to let him tell them what to do.

you may wish to read it again.

There were 2 points (at least).

1. Samak could have spun it this way at the least.

2. At the most hopeful, it might have workded a bit and when they start to let aid in, he position himself as their main conduit to where much aid is sitting - Thailand. Maybe it wouldnt have worked by 4pm today, but they are likely going to let more aid in in the coming days.

[Loburt]

so, in other words, even though nothing Samak does will actually have any real impact on the Burmese generals' unwillingness to let aid in, he should posture and spin so as to make himself look good.

i'm sure the Burmese people appreciate what a big help your idea is.

[PJack]

so, in other words, even though nothing Samak does will actually have any real impact on the Burmese generals' unwillingness to let aid in, he should posture and spin so as to make himself look good.

i'm sure the Burmese people appreciate what a big help your idea is.

well, it is true that I can see the Burmese people take much more solace from your benevolent banal? additions.

I am surprised that my observations about the nature of politics was lost on such a shining intelligence.

[Loburt]

well, you're just not making a lot of sense. but i wouldn't expect that from someone who envisions themselves as a potential pr consultant for Samak.

Samak doesn't have any real influence with the generals.

But he will be going to Burma anyway on Sunday and I'm sure do precisely as you want him to - if the Burmese finally let aid workers in, he'll try and take credit for it.

fortunately, most people aren't dumb enough to believe Samak and his self promotions, nor would any sane person view him as a statesman.

i never said i had any answers for the burmese people.

and talk about banal. you want to shower us with more your shining intelligence and brilliant political advice?

[PJack]

well, you're just not making a lot of sense.

but i wouldn't expect that from someone who envisions themselves as a potential pr consultant for Samak.

But he will be going to Burma anyway on Sunday and I'm sure do precisely as you want him to - if the Burmese finally let aid workers in, he'll try and take credit for it.

i never said i had any answers for the burmese people.

and talk about banal. you want to shower us with more your shining intelligence and brilliant political advice?

my PR offer was made tongue in cheek. Not surprising it was missed by someone wired as tight as you.

Oh, so my observation about Samak was correct after all?

mmmmm. How could that be?

I will simplify it for you.

The main point was where are the statesmen?

Or, where are the politicians to try to take credit as such? The Thais are missing an opportunity.

[LakeGeneve]

A reminder that if you want to access the latest humanitarian info by UN agencies and INGOs on the ground (with what limited access they have) the www.reliefweb.int has constant updates including press reports, maps and country background info.

Save the Children had a presser yesterday stating that their teams in Burma estimate that some 40% of the 1.5m survivors, those in need, are children. They also estimate that similar to the Tsunami in Indo whole villages have been wiped out leaving many orphans.

[LakeGeneve]

Some recent quotes from a well known cook:

Yesterday: I never said that a couple of banks were shaky and about to go bust.

2 days ago: The Generals are meditating like good Buddhists on how to respond to the cyclone, pls give them time as it is a new challenge for them to help the people. This humanitarian thing is confusing.

5 days ago: I believe in press freedom....the press have the freedom to be sacked or kicked out for asking me questions. they should not ask questions, their role is to report what we tell them.

8 days ago: Unseen forces are conspiring against me by using the media that I don't control to ask me questions. From now one I will not attend twice weekly press conferences at govt house I will only answer those questions that I ask myself during my weekly TV or radio address.

4 weeks ago: (During the UN Climate Change Prep meeting in Bangkok) We are promoting new tourists facilities and will increase mass tourism in order to deal with climate change. Everyone is welcome to thailand to spend your money.

10 weeks ago: I only wanted to know if she already had a gig when I asked her is she had sex last night

3 months ago: we will build a metro network bigger than my ego, and all in only 3 years, no make that 2 years.

Last 32 years: only 1 person died and he tripped while carelessly crossing the road and accidently feel into a harmless bullet. This human rights stuff is tricky, give people too many rights and they won't need someone to tell them what to do and how to behave!

[Loburt]

well, you're just not making a lot of sense.

but i wouldn't expect that from someone who envisions themselves as a potential pr consultant for Samak.

But he will be going to Burma anyway on Sunday and I'm sure do precisely as you want him to - if the Burmese finally let aid workers in, he'll try and take credit for it.

i never said i had any answers for the burmese people.

and talk about banal. you want to shower us with more your shining intelligence and brilliant political advice?

my PR offer was made tongue in cheek. Not surprising it was missed by someone wired as tight as you.

Oh, so my observation about Samak was correct after all?

mmmmm. How could that be?

I will simplify it for you.

The main point was where are the statesmen?

Or, where are the politicians to try to take credit as such? The Thais are missing an opportunity.

And my point, which its not surprising that someone as thick as you doesn't seem to get, is that neither Thailand's politicians nor its statesmen have any influence over the Burmese generals.

They have no opportunity to miss.