Could Bangkok be the Next Haiti?

[admin]

Here's an interesting post from Connenting the Dots that makes an argument that even a relatively smalled eqarthquake in Bangkok could produce a death toll that would make Haiti look small in comparison.

An earthquake in Bangkok is something people try not to think about. But the fact is any earthquake bigger than a 5.2 in or around Bangkok will likely send Bangkok’s skyline to the ground.

Anybody that has lived in Bangkok for more than a year or two will have seen countless construction projects with cranes sprouting out of the ground like weeds. It also does not take an engineering degree to see the construction framework is on the lean side as compared to other places in the world that have healthy building codes.

For example a column in a building in Bangkok may be a meter square for a building 10 or more stories tall. In California columns are 5 to 10 times as big for shorter buildings. The newer columns are round and not square to avoid fracturing at the corners.

Another factor to consider is the density of the cement used. Cement has a huge variety of mixes from light and porous to dense and very heavy. Many of the Bangkok buildings have the lighter cement as a cost saving measure.

Also Thai engineers have openly acknowledged the fact that the Bangkok buildings have no earthquake proofing. The alarm was raised shortly after the 9.0 December 2004 earthquake in Indonesia that shook buildings in Bangkok. There is no consideration for horizontal forces or cement fracturing.

Other factors that make Bangkok a disaster waiting to happen is Bangkok is sinking as a result of industrial water usage. The rate has been measured to be as much as 5cm per year. What that means is the earth under Bangkok is unstable and will tend to magnify the quake as the earth will likely liquify. The phenomenon was seen in San Francisco California in 1989 where some buildings were built on man made land that was once water. Almost all the buildings were destroyed in those areas. That was a 6.9 quake. So the damage of a 5.2 earthquake in Bangkok would likely result in damage of a 6.0 or higher.

In comparison to the 7.0 January 2010 earthquake in Haiti you must consider different factors for Bangkok. First off a 7.0 is a healthy earthquake in anyone’s book. With a 7.0 being 10 times more powerful than a 6.0 and 100 times more powerful than a 5.0, you quickly see a difference. However the buildings in Haiti are 2 to 4 stores tall in most cases and not 40 to 80 stores tall as in Bangkok. So some very crude math and practice with building houses made from playing cards and you can see the bigger they are the harder they fall.

Also the population difference must be considered. The population in the Bangkok metro area is about 12 million people. The entire population of Haiti is about 9 million with 2 million in Port-au-Prince. So if you multiply the death total in Haiti by a factor of 6 or 7, you would be near the potential death toll in Bangkok.

To say Bangkok will not suffer an earthquake is naive at best. There are 2 fault lines within about 25 miles of Bangkok. And both have been active further north. As the stress points along the fault shift with each earthquake, sooner or later there will be a significant earthquake in the Bangkok area.

As a native Californian, you sort of get used to earthquakes. I guess technically there are a few every day but usually far to small to feel. Every so often you get a 3 - 5 but that's not even enough to stop a meeting for an experienced Californian. Typically it'll start and you pause to feel it for a second to determine how big it is and then you just keep on going unless it starts to worsen.

I was living just north of Northridge during the 1994 Northridge earthquake (6.7 earthquake). I think that's the only time in my adult life I've ever been scared of an earthquake. Most earthquakes are nothing more than a rumbling and feel like the ground has turned into an ocean and you're riding a swell going over the earth. This was violent. I was literally thrown from my bed.

Seeing the destruction was humbling. Highways collapsed, buildings completely destroyed, and fires raged everywhere.

I have to agree with the author of this article that even a much smaller earthquake could be devistating for Bangkok. Imagine one half of a building like Central World collapsing in on itself. Or seeing a 30 or 40 story condo complex fold.

I sure hope that the people of Bangkok handle it more like we did during the Northridge quake than how it's being handled in Haiti. Police and firefighters responded quickly and effeciently even though many of them had also lost their own homes. People came together and helped each other out. Neighbor helped neighbor. There was no looting. One reason is that many owners of grocery markets that were destroyed allowed people to take food, water, batteries, flashlights, and whatever else they needed as basic supplies. No armed gangs roamed the streets killing for basic necessities.

The few places that did try to screw people over by raising the prices of things like water and gasoline were outed on television and the mayor of Los Angeles threatened to arrest shop owners who took advantage of the situation.

How would that play out in Bangkok? Would neighbor help neighbor? Would your local mini-mart start charging 1000 baht for a small bottle of water? Would anybody with a gun have a right to take what is yours? Would the police and fire departments be able to respond?

It's something I certainly hope I never have to find out.

[olympos]

Oh my Buddha!!! :shock:

[Admin_2]

Pretty scary to think about.

When was the last earthquake in this immediate area, and how strong was it?

The buildings here are definitely not up to the California standard, then again California gets hit a lot more often with some pretty strong quakes.

[olympos]

Well i have been living in Istanbul for many years - Istanbul is more or less 7 times bigger than Bangkok.

In 1999 we had a 7.6 earthquake about 100km east - the earthquake lasted for 37 seconds, killed around 17,000 people and left approximately 500,000 people homeless.

As Bill said, it's something I certainly hope we never have to find out in BKK.

[pandorea]

Just talked about this with my sister in BKK the other day. Her office is on 24th floor, I fear for her.

I used to work with a engineer consulting company in BKK. There was a building on Viphawadee road that we worked for from drawings to interior designs. We have an Engineer (Thai) who just greaduated from MIT, USA. He reponsed for foundation works and he didn't compromise when it comes to foundations but the BIG boss (also Engineer) cut down so many details just to save some bth. The MIT guy resigned he couldn't bear to see the mistakes. That was about 18 years ago, the building still there, but I can tell you that I won't be any where nearby that building. ..and this is just "one" example

[admin]

How does everyone think the Bangkok community would react? Would it be every man/woman for themselves?

[pandorea]

Hard to say, Admin-Bill. But I guess they will react like the most people react to a crisis. But look back at Sunami, the Thais cope with the crisis quite well. They get up and go on with their lives.

[olympos]

How does everyone think the Bangkok community would react? Would it be every man/woman for themselves?

I have been a red cross volunteer since i was 15 years old and i am educated in first aid and other things.

I am part of the Bangkok community and in case that i would survive such an event here - i would help help help as far as my energy allows, maybe more.

[R.Win]

How does everyone think the Bangkok community would react? Would it be every man/woman for themselves?

If the food and/or water is not available long enough after you lost everything MANY people in ANY area would react that way eventually.

[admin]

Hard to say, Admin-Bill. But I guess they will react like the most people react to a crisis. But look back at Sunami, the Thais cope with the crisis quite well. They get up and go on with their lives.

Yeah, but it's difficult to say that all people will react in a certain way. By that, I mean . . . In Haiti gangs are running the city. Looting and violence is rampant. The city is in chaos.

During hurricane Katrina there was also rampant looting. People were shooting each other for scarce resources (water, food, etc).

During 9-11 people came together. People helped each other out and there was almost no violence.

During the Northridge quake I described in the OP crime also decreased as people took strangers into their homes, shared their food, and people tried to help each other.

I know nobody can predict how people will react, but I was hoping to get some different viewpoints on whether Bangkok would be closer to Haiti or closer to Northridge in the aftermath of a major disaster like an earthquake.

Just trying to get some opinions on which is more likely.

[admin]

How does everyone think the Bangkok community would react? Would it be every man/woman for themselves?

If the food and/or water is not available long enough after you lost everything MANY people in ANY area would react that way eventually.

So, I guess you can say that a large part of how people react is based on the ability to restore essential services like water, food, shelter (even temporary shelter), etc?

So what level of confidence do you think your average Bangkokonian would have that the Thai and world could respond quickly enough so that it didn't turn into a situation of every man, woman, and child for themselves?

Sadly, I'm guessing there would be some initial hope but unless Bangkok was bombarded with Red Cross, UN, US, Australian, and European aid and supplies within 48 hours it could get ugly.

[R.Win]

So, I guess you can say that a large part of how people react is based on the ability to restore essential services like water, food, shelter (even temporary shelter), etc?

So what level of confidence do you think your average Bangkokonian would have that the Thai and world could respond quickly enough so that it didn't turn into a situation of every man, woman, and child for themselves?

Sadly, I'm guessing there would be some initial hope but unless Bangkok was bombarded with Red Cross, UN, US, Australian, and European aid and supplies within 48 hours it could get ugly.

I agree, but it is also depending on wether it's 2 big buildings or complete areas of a city, It might even be harder for help to arrive because of annoying surrounding countries like myanmar and cambodia. All I can say is I hope it will never happen and we'll never have to find out.

[drlovelife8]

Light cement asa cost saving measure.

A somewhat overlooked safety aspect I would have assumed (in this part of the world) would be fundamental and heavily policed...... Then I remembered:

***

[Hobbes]

Hard to say, Admin-Bill. But I guess they will react like the most people react to a crisis. But look back at Sunami, the Thais cope with the crisis quite well. They get up and go on with their lives.

Yeah, but it's difficult to say that all people will react in a certain way. By that, I mean . . . In Haiti gangs are running the city. Looting and violence is rampant. The city is in chaos.

During hurricane Katrina there was also rampant looting. People were shooting each other for scarce resources (water, food, etc).

During 9-11 people came together. People helped each other out and there was almost no violence.

During the Northridge quake I described in the OP crime also decreased as people took strangers into their homes, shared their food, and people tried to help each other.

I know nobody can predict how people will react, but I was hoping to get some different viewpoints on whether Bangkok would be closer to Haiti or closer to Northridge in the aftermath of a major disaster like an earthquake.

Just trying to get some opinions on which is more likely.

It's a matter of scale. 11/9 was only 2 buildings meaning the infrastructure was basically intact in NY. The same for the Northridge earthquake you described, it was a defined small area affected. If an earthquake was to flatten the bay area things would more likely to be similar to New Orleans.

That said, there will also always be those ones that help any way they can.

[bigKus]

Just saw from TTV last night about the Threats that Thailand facing in the moment which they called 'non-tranditional threats' (such as climate change, competition over resorces, global Militarisation etc ). Natural Disaster is one of Threats that Thailand concern. After tsunami Thailand have founded http://www.ndwc.go.th. So, Bangkok will be like Haiti or not and what will they act/react, ndwc can be the represent of us thai to tell you.

Well Admin-Bill, seemed to thai people, die from natural diaster is less scary than die from straving or motorbike accident

[Bruce551]

A calamity kit would be very handy to have in a flood or earth quake situation in Bangkok. Solar charger for your cell phone, flash light with rechargeable batteries, first aid kit and extra drinking water.

I believe that in Haiti cell phone network continued to function even after the earthquake. SMS messaging could be life saver in disaster situation.

I think "somebody" should demand that GSM network in Bangkok have solar power backup for emergencies, i.e. floods and earthquakes.

The Monks and Wats in Thailand are a source great strength, able to provide some of the shelter and organization necessary in an emergency.

[pandorea]

How does everyone think the Bangkok community would react? Would it be every man/woman for themselves?

If the food and/or water is not available long enough after you lost everything MANY people in ANY area would react that way eventually.

So, I guess you can say that a large part of how people react is based on the ability to restore essential services like water, food, shelter (even temporary shelter), etc?

So what level of confidence do you think your average Bangkokonian would have that the Thai and world could respond quickly enough so that it didn't turn into a situation of every man, woman, and child for themselves?

Sadly, I'm guessing there would be some initial hope but unless Bangkok was bombarded with Red Cross, UN, US, Australian, and European aid and supplies within 48 hours it could get ugly.

Agree.

I experienced the earthquake in Bangkok once when I was in school, I was a young teen by then. Luckily my sisters and I were in the same school and my mother was a teacher there. So she just drove us home along with 4-5 kids who live nearby us. That was the first time and the only time in my life (up til now) with the earthquake but I remember the feeling well. I was scared!!

My nephew 7 years old at Bangkok Christian College. He learned how to escape the earthquake in school, that might not help much when it happens for real, children can be too scared to remember all the details.

As for your question, I'm afraid that desperation will take over many people and there will be chaos and I agree with Hobbes, there will always be some good people, some bad people and some people in between.

I might have to ask my sisters to move from BKK, just in case.

[admin]

All of these are great ideas . . . especially the water. Water is your number one concern if basic services are disrupted. You can go up to 8 weeks without food (Gandhi used to fast for 21 days at a time when he was in his 70's). Of course, someone of my *ahem* size would probably last longer than many Thais :-) See, it's all part of my emergency survival plan! LOL

But with water, first off, you can become dehydrated within an hour if it's hot, you are exerting yourself, and you weren't properly hydrated to begin with. Even if it's cool, you're relaxing, and you were well hydrated, at 72 hours your kidneys start to fail and with almost near certainty dead within 5 days.

Other things I would add to the list that Bruce didn't mention:

A battery/solar/mechanical operated AM/FM radio. During a disaster knowing where aid stations are or what the status is of rescue efforts can be a big help.

Candles: Flashlights are good but you want to save the batteries as much as possible if you're sitting around and need some non-direct lighting.

First Aid Kit: If things are that bad it's highly likely you and/or others are injured. Being able to dress a wound and keep out infection could hold you over until medical aid arrives. It might help if you know how to use the kit too so if you don't add a first aid book to the pack as well.

A calamity kit would be very handy to have in a flood or earth quake situation in Bangkok. Solar charger for your cell phone, flash light with rechargeable batteries, first aid kit and extra drinking water.

I believe that in Haiti cell phone network continued to function even after the earthquake. SMS messaging could be life saver in disaster situation.

I think "somebody" should demand that GSM network in Bangkok have solar power backup for emergencies, i.e. floods and earthquakes.

The Monks and Wats in Thailand are a source great strength, able to provide some of the shelter and organization necessary in an emergency.

[Damnam1]

I doubt that there exists an emergency plan for such a case in Bangkok. Apart from this the main problem is the "this will never happen to us" - attitude, which keeps people and the ones in charge off to get prepared.

The Santika disaster clearly demonstrated that the authorities were not able to handle such a situation. Utter chaos on the roads and no clear order structure among the authorities was the result. Everything was going zig-zag; in comparison to the aftermath of an earthquake this was a relatively limited area but caused an absolute traffic chaos.

How many were affected by the Santika disaster ? 500 injured ? 86 people dead ?

So what about the chaos if there were 50.000 dead and 500.000 people injured ?

[grezzzy_greer]

I was in Taipei during several earthquakes. That city is well prepared for earthquakes and has very strict building codes to protect its citizens. Staying in a room on the 10th floor of a building when the earthquakes struck, I found that anything less than about a magnitude 5 could not be felt at all, and a 5.2 gave me a feeling similar to very slight dizziness (you tend to wonder if the building is moving or if its just you). A magnitude 6.3 was noticeable and slightly scary, but did not affect the building structurally at all - bearing in mind the aforesaid stringent building codes.

I note from a report by SathianCharoenrien of the Building Control Bureau Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (Thailand) that the last earthquake was a 6.6 on September 22, 2003 at Sagaingfault (south-central of Myanmar) at a Depth of 10 km, and a Distance of about 855 km NW of Bangkok. This produced some slight damage in Bangkok - they note in particular some structural damage to All Seasons Place - minor cracks, especially at construction interfaces such as bricks to concrete pillar etc. The report states that the nearest distance of the active fault to Bangkok is about 200-400 km. They state that Bangkok may be at risk from long distance earthquakes - more so because there are no fault lines in the Bangkok area itself, however from USGS maps I see Chiang Mai and that area does seem to be more prone to seismic activity than Bangkok. I certainly do hope we never see any major quakes here, and I feel fairly confident that it is unlikely, but being prepared in any case for any sort of natural disaster is always going to be a very worthwhile thing for any community.

[R.Win]

A calamity kit would be very handy to have in a flood or earth quake situation in Bangkok. Solar charger for your cell phone, flash light with rechargeable batteries, first aid kit and extra drinking water.

I believe that in Haiti cell phone network continued to function even after the earthquake. SMS messaging could be life saver in disaster situation.

I think "somebody" should demand that GSM network in Bangkok have solar power backup for emergencies, i.e. floods and earthquakes.

The Monks and Wats in Thailand are a source great strength, able to provide some of the shelter and organization necessary in an emergency.

A calamity kit is really cute, but as long as you don't carry it on you 24/7 it isn't very helpful in case of an earthquake, how are you going to reach it if you're stuck in a collapsed building and broken concrete is all around you if not pressing on a part of your body? If this is the case a solar cell charger isn't really able to catch any ray of light... IF you happen to have it in your pocket and are actually able to use it.

For flooding it is a different thing obviously but precautions for an earthquake is just creating an illusion of safety, all you can do is choose to stay in a STRONG small building or even better a bungalow, I don't expect people to live in tents. other than that it's all pretty much depending on the mercy of god and plain dumb luck, if one would stick around helping others and has a calamity kit they will actually have to opportunity to make it usefull but being stuck somewhere inside... all you can do is pray and keep your cell right next to you at all times and a charged spare battery, maybe a bottle of water next to your pillow but I don't think anyone would keep that up for more than a few days.

Earthquakes are one of mother nature's biggest ******* and I truly wish that mankind will figure out a way to predict them days in advance but that's a longshot.

[Bruce551]

A California geologist said he predicted earthquakes by watching the number of runaway dog & cats adds in the newspaper, a high number of runaways means a earthquake is coming soon