Thai Political conflict enters new dangerous phase

[admin]

There are a lot of various blogs and websites that have opinions on Thai politics but one of my favorite is Connecting the Dots. The writing is very blunt and both Thaksin, Abhisit, or anyone else who happens to do something newsworthy gets the same treatment.

It's also been pretty dead on in terms of how the whole rally thing would play out.

Here's one of his more recent articles where he discusses the increasing chance that after the failure of the red shirt protests Thaksin and his more militant supporters may try to assassinate key government figures that are getting in their way.

With the breakup of factions in Thaksin’s Red Shirt army, Thai politics has entered a dangerous new phase. This new phase will be more targeted at politicians with assassinations being the primary tool.

Noting the lack of direction in the March 14 Red Shirt rally, it is clear there was little or no agreement in the direction the rally should take. Many of the people attending the rally felt the Red Shirt leadership was nonexistent. Thaksin was in hiding calling in from an unknown location as well. This gave the general sense he had his tail between his legs. Together with the announced split between the violent and non violent Red Shirt factions, it has opened the doors for the violent factions to go at it alone.

However in general that never stopped the violent factions from being violent in the past, the only change now is they will not have the huge mob to repeat the April 2009 riots. So what that leaves is the cowardly M79 grenade attacks and assassination attempts at members of the government as well as people on Thaksin’s hit list.

The goals remain the same being to unseat the government, and with key figures riding around in bullet proof cars, long range snipers and powerful car bombs seem to be the remaining choices. The snipers would be targeting places where their targets would enter or exit their bullet proof rides. car bombs would be anyplace along the traveled route with areas around the Government house being the best choice to assure the target passes the bomb.

As for the remaining more peaceful Red Shirts it is uncertain what they will do. Their intentions do not match their resources as many people who have attended the rally simply sensed defeat and would only come to a new rally if there was some monetary gain involved.

The Red Shirts however seemed to have struck on a theme that may get some new followers if they can do so insides the confines of democracy. If they can do this there is the possibility of getting some yellow shirt converts because they will have met their requirements of accepting that a democracy does exist and are using it within the law. There is no doubt there are some yellow shirts who are discontent with the elite class and would be looking to level the playing field for all Thais. The yellow shirts were the best available choice for them at the time, but this new direction by the Red Shirts offers refinement.

But the game is not over and the Red shirts are still in play. The most dangerous time will be before Thaksin’s assets are seized and his permanent ban on politics begins.

Thaksin has also sensed defeat with using rallies after this last showing, so it is very clear knowing his personality he is placing his chips on the assassination spot on the table. He has to be the only remaining choice thus the only man that can. Anyone else who shows a high level of competence will be near the top of his hit list. When he is the only remaining choice he feels he will have leverage and demand his money back and a pardon if the Thais want his help in saving Thailand from the remaining inept who are running the show.

[PiAnt]

There's a few hardcore Thaksin supporters who are doing the bad stuff in the name of the majority of demonstrators who are just trying to get themselves heard.

Half a dozen football hooligans at a football match would never, ever, be considered to be representative of the whole.

Way to easy to group them all together as bad sorts, when, in fact, nothing could be further than the truth.

The ones who are actualy doing the bad stuff should not be referred to as red shirts, but as cronies who are doing their masters bidding, whilst appearing to represent those who they have hijacked.

[Crustyjuggler]

There's a few hardcore Thaksin supporters who are doing the bad stuff in the name of the majority of demonstrators who are just trying to get themselves heard.

Half a dozen football hooligans at a football match would never, ever, be considered to be representative of the whole.

Way to easy to group them all together as bad sorts, when, in fact, nothing could be further than the truth.

The ones who are actualy doing the bad stuff should not be referred to as red shirts, but as cronies who are doing their masters bidding, whilst appearing to represent those who they have hijacked.

I see this in the flesh today and hope the forum dwellers can trickle along to my journal of pics from the red shirt march on Ratchada.

http://www.thailandfriends.com/index.php?op=modload&name=Journal&view=journal&juid=87422&jid=70192

[Bruce551]

The Newspaper Somebody Can Trust

Fri, 19/03/2010 - 12:14

Harrison George

http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/1681

It is generally recognized that the Thai media upholds the strictest standards of responsible journalism and this has been well attested in the coverage of the red shirt rally that continues today.

To demonstrate the reasoned and careful judgement that governs all editorial decisions, Prachatai wishes to share an edited transcript of what might have been a recent conference of reporters at one of the nation’s leading English-language newspapers. Although Prachatai has not been able to verify this transcript (following the time-honoured Thai journalistic practice of ‘couldn’t be bothered’), we present it here in the same way that the Thai media normally presents wishful thinking, unsubstantiated rumours, pure speculation and unreasoning prejudice – as if it were the gospel truth.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Senior Editor: So how did ‘hordes’ get past us? And on the front page as well? I thought we’d agreed that we’d keep our editorial bias subtle. Not like those loudmouths at That Other Newspaper. This is the kind of language I would expect them to use.

Another Editor: That was my fault I’m afraid. When the subbie called me to check if it was OK, I misheard him. I thought he said ‘red whores’ and, you know, it sounded like a good sex angle.

Senior Editor: OK, let’s get this straight. The main thrust of our reporting is fear-mongering. If the red shirts persist with not using violence, denying us a proper story, then we keep speculating about when and how it could get violent. We did well with the blood thing, stressing the dangers of infection. But we must keep it up. Put this ‘Red Rage’ banner on every page.

Another Editor: But it’s all very good-humoured. Even the bystanders are cheering and clapping. Where’s the rage?

Senior Editor: That’s beside the point. Our readers must be made afraid of the reds, especially if they’ve done nothing frightening.

Impressionable Young Reporter: But they are frightening. I only went to interview them once and it was horrible. Some of them had dark glasses and moustaches and they were so dark-skinned. I’m sure they weren’t really Thai.

Another Editor: It would be a great story if they weren’t. We’ve repeated Thep Thaug’s warnings about foreigners 2 or 3 times but nobody’s ever reported finding one.

Impressionable Young Reporter: Well when they talked me, they sounded Thai but when they talked to each other, I couldn’t understand a word.

Another Editor: You were probably talking to a contingent from the northeast and they were speaking Issan among themselves.

Impressionable Young Reporter: Issan? Is that legal?

Another Editor: Well, it’s like Lao.

Young Female Reporter: So they were foreigners! And I actually spoke to them! How disgusting!

Senior Editor: Can we keep pushing traffic problems? Nothing irritates our readers more than unexpectedly bad traffic.

Another Editor: Except they manage the traffic very well and it has in fact been lighter than normal.

Senior Editor: That’s no problem. Just place a picture of one of their convoys next to an article about the need to build new expressways. We must have one on file, but if not, just make it up. When readers see the two things together, they’ll get the message.

Another Editor: Are you sure that will work?

Senior Editor: Sure. Look what happened with the story about the M79 parts. We put it on the same page as all the red stories, right in the middle. We didn’t even draw any lines to separate it from the other stories. And next day, we had that piece about the police denying a link with the reds.

Another Editor: But doesn’t this mean we were the ones suggesting the link?

Senior Editor: And we reported the denial next day. That’s proper balanced reporting.

Another Editor: But then there was this story that some parts had been ordered by the army anyway. Maybe we should have checked the facts first.

Senior Editor: How? That would have meant sending someone all the way to Ayutthaya or wherever. Waste of time and money.

Another Editor: So we just get the crime beat reporter to copy down what the police tells us.

Senior Editor: Exactly, like we normally do. OK, so are we all set? Now who’s writing the letters to the editor for tomorrow?

About author: Bangkokians with long memories may remember his irreverent column in The Nation in the 1980's. During his period of enforced silence since then, he was variously reported as participating in a 999-day meditation retreat in a hill-top monastery in Mae Hong Son (he gave up after 998 days), as the Special Rapporteur for Satire of the UN High Commission for Human Rights, and as understudy for the male lead in the long-running ‘******* -not the Musical' at the Neasden International Palladium (formerly Park Lane Empire).

[PiAnt]

Just a thought mate. And I don't want to seem to be complaining about you sifting through the chafe to get to the meat an all.

It's all very interesting and all that, but, seeing as you seem to have quiet a good angle on stuff, is there any chance you could put some of your own ideas down rather than just, seemingly, pasting other people's stuff?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, I reckon, it'd be more interesting if you quoted a bit, and gave your opinion a bit more.

(Sorry if I stood on a toe there.)

[DANNO]

Just a thought mate. And I don't want to seem to be complaining about you sifting through the chafe to get to the meat an all.

It's all very interesting and all that, but, seeing as you seem to have quiet a good angle on stuff, is there any chance you could put some of your own ideas down rather than just, seemingly, pasting other people's stuff?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, I reckon, it'd be more interesting if you quoted a bit, and gave your opinion a bit more.

(Sorry if I stood on a toe there.)

+ 1

P'nat has a good point Bruce...you are obviously well read on any number of topics...give us your thoughts man... :!:

everyones going to get brused a bit :wink:

[English_Bob]

There's an EB letter in Postbag today...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/34739/the-poor-are-being-used

And there's an article by Voranai Vanijaka...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/thaksin-judgement-update/34786/thaksin-get-out

Looks like he reads my stuff and then passes it off as his own!

[DANNO]

There's an EB letter in Postbag today...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/34739/the-poor-are-being-used

And there's an article by Voranai Vanijaka...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/thaksin-judgement-update/34786/thaksin-get-out

Looks like he reads my stuff and then passes it off as his own!

dave...your second career is waiting.... :wink:

[Bruce551]

Senior Editor: Sure. Look what happened with the story about the M79 parts.

Looks like the Thai "tricks and puzzels club" was trying to setup the Red Shirts to look like they were planning to use violence in their demonstrations. Then the Gov. (military) would have justification to use pre-emptive action to deal with the Red Shirts.

[Bruce551]

What choices do the Red Shirts have with regard to funding for demonstrations if TS and his cronies were out of the picture?

[English_Bob]

Senior Editor: Sure. Look what happened with the story about the M79 parts.

Looks like the Thai "tricks and puzzels club" was trying to setup the Red Shirts to look like they were planning to use violence in their demonstrations. Then the Gov. (military) would have justification to use pre-emptive action to deal with the Red Shirts.

Did you READ that article?

It's a joke, written in a Socialist magazine. I don't even know why you posted it...

This government has handled this demonstration with restraint, maturity and dignity. Imagine previous governments allowing blood to be poured on the prime minister's house, bags of excrement thrown at his private residence... (incidentally, what other primate throws its own poo?)

Stick to your 'End-of-the-World-is-Nigh' global warming, sorry cooling, sorry, changing prophesies.... At least one day the world WILL end and you can feel like you were right all along..

[Chatty]

There's an EB letter in Postbag today...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/34739/the-poor-are-being-used

And there's an article by Voranai Vanijaka...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/thaksin-judgement-update/34786/thaksin-get-out

Looks like he reads my stuff and then passes it off as his own!

you should ask him to put your name for reference..

[Bruce551]

Hey, I think Abhisit and his administration did good job handling the Red Shirts demonstrations. But, what was deal with the M79 parts story.

[Chatty]

Senior Editor: Sure. Look what happened with the story about the M79 parts.

Looks like the Thai "tricks and puzzels club" was trying to setup the Red Shirts to look like they were planning to use violence in their demonstrations. Then the Gov. (military) would have justification to use pre-emptive action to deal with the Red Shirts.

I don't understand why did you see this way p'Bruce,

See too much UDD TV show?

[DANNO]

Senior Editor: Sure. Look what happened with the story about the M79 parts.

Looks like the Thai "tricks and puzzels club" was trying to setup the Red Shirts to look like they were planning to use violence in their demonstrations. Then the Gov. (military) would have justification to use pre-emptive action to deal with the Red Shirts.

Did you READ that article?

It's a joke, written in a Socialist magazine. I don't even know why you posted it...

This government has handled this demonstration with restraint, maturity and dignity. Imagine previous governments allowing blood to be poured on the prime minister's house, bags of excrement thrown at his private residence... (incidentally, what other primate throws its own poo?)

Stick to your 'End-of-the-World-is-Nigh' global warming, sorry cooling, sorry, changing prophesies.... At least one day the world WILL end and you can feel like you were right all along..

Well Bruce so much for:..

" everyones going to get brused a bit "

Looks like a little carry over bile

[Loburt]

Senior Editor: Sure. Look what happened with the story about the M79 parts.

Looks like the Thai "tricks and puzzels club" was trying to setup the Red Shirts to look like they were planning to use violence in their demonstrations. Then the Gov. (military) would have justification to use pre-emptive action to deal with the Red Shirts.

Wasn't it the police, who generally don't support this government, who made the M-79 bust and speculated it could be linked to the Red Shirts? Wasn't the attack on the army base, and attacks on the PAD at government house and Don Muang airport carried out with M-79s? Was the possibility that the M-79 parts might be liniked to the Reds beyond reason? If you were a cop or investigator, wouldn't they have been high on your suspects list? If it was conspiracy by a powerful few, then why was the truth able to come out so quickly? Surely the tricks and puzzles cabal could have done better than that.

As for fanning fears of violence, was that all done by the government and the supposedly anti-Red media? Who was it who told the Reds to bring gasoline with them to the protest so they could burn down Bangkok? Red leader Arisman.

Where did political drawings urging protesters to bring two molotov cocktails with them to Bangkok appear? the Reds own newspaper.

Who was it who played a doctored tape to frame the PM, making it appear he ordered the army to use violence when he did not such thing, in order to make the protesters angry? Red leader Nattawut.

Who was it who used violence during the Songkran demonstration? The Reds, despite their contention that every act of violence was actually committed by Newin Chidchob's henchmen dressed in red shirs. Please.

If the Red Shirts have the support they claim to have, then they could conduct a fundraising drive to send people to Bangkok to protest. If there are millions of Red supporters out there, if each gave 50 baht or so, couldn't they afford to send several thousand protesters to Bangkok?

As we've seen, not every Red is a poor farmer. Maybe that Red Shirt socialite Daranee who spends several hours and several thousand baht everyday getting her hair done at Emporium could make a substantial donation. I'm sure the costs of one of her outfits could fund a village of protesters for a month.

And if it's hard for poor people to spare 50 baht or whatever, well, isn't freedom and democracy something you have to sacrifice for?

Or is it just democracy for handouts and a profit?

[Bruce551]

No worries mate

And yes, I believe Climate Change is real and that Thailand's citizens & Gov. should do everything possible to strengthen the eco-system against droughts & floods. It's the Thai farmers that are going bare the most damage from CC.

Number 2, I believe that Khun Abhisiit & Khun Korn want to improve economic opportunity for Thai farmers. But this is going require a huge transformation in farm management and Gov. policy.

The wise King has pointed the way with his "Sufficiency" economics for self sustaining villages. If this is Socialism, then I am a socialist 100 percent.

[Hobbes]

No worries mate

And yes, I believe Climate Change is real and that Thailand's citizens & Gov. should do everything possible to strengthen the eco-system against droughts & floods. It's the Thai farmers that are going bare the most damage from CC.

Number 2, I believe that Khun Abhisiit & Khun Korn want to improve economic opportunity for Thai farmers. But this is going require a huge transformation in farm management and Gov. policy.

The wise King has pointed the way with his "Sufficiency" economics for self sustaining villages. If this is Socialism, then I am a socialist 100 percent.

Welcome to the ranks, Comrade.

Now, go back digging some canals! :wink:

[Bruce551]

I have the feeling that many people do not understand the fundamentals of the King's "Sufficiency" economics.

Main Point: To reduce the Thai farmers exposure to volatile price swings of international commodities markets

Commodity Inputs: The Thai farmer buys diesel fuel, fossil fuel based fertilizer and pesticides at market prices which can vary as much as 50% in price.

Outputs: Rice, which the price a can vary from 6,000 Baht a ton to 18,000 baht a ton.

The Thai farmer land slowly becomes less fertile and productive and requires more and more fossil fuel fertilizer.

Sufficiency: The Thai farmer plants Bio-fuel trees and gets CDM carbon credits and diesel fuel. He makes his organic fertilizer and diversifies his crops.

He sells less rice and more vegies, but gets a better price and has less farm expenses because he is not buying fossile fuels. And his land is more fertile and better able to withstand the impacts of climate change.

This is part of the answer to the current political divide in Thailand. The Thai farmer needs to able to make a sustainable living, without problems from loan sharkes and rice middlemen.