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International ''swine flu'' emergency


Count_Jason
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What is a bit strange is that I have had 4 emails (that managed to get through my junk mail) advising me to buy Tamiflu just in case - claiming more sales in the last 72 hours than the last 2 years. They claim stocks are running out.

How can this possibly be as the US bought 20m doses and the UK bought 14.6m doses against avian flu 2 years ago (which expire in 9 months unless they can get this swine thing off the ground). Now we all know that Bush Cheney and Rumsfeld are shareholders in Roche which makes the product and that Rumsfeld was the CEO of the company that invented it. But they LOST the election.

And some useless flu related facts. Seasonal regular flu affects between 15m and 60m Americans a year. It results in 200,000 hospitalisations and around 36,000 deaths. Worldwide flu kills between 250,000 to 500,000 a year (sounds a lot but some 250,000 people die each day). SARS reportedly killed 8,600 people - less than a days average deaths from regular flu - it killed no-one in the US. Swine flu has reported 160 incidences outside Mexico and several hundred inside the country. Deaths from the flu have been reported from as little as 20 to over 100.

There have been about 6 or7 outbreaks of swine flu since 1918. There is no real evidence that any of them killed more than a few hundred. The most famous case was in 1976 when some 40 m americans were vaccinated against the flu. Unfortunately the vaccination had side effects known as GBD (similar to MND) which was a motorneurone disease which affected some 500 and killed about 50 - rather more than the swine flu disease itself.

Still it is a bad idea to go around kissing pigs (I have never done so but I have kissed a few dogs in my time.)

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And some useless flu related facts. Seasonal regular flu affects between 15m and 60m Americans a year. It results in 200,000 hospitalisations and around 36,000 deaths. Worldwide flu kills between 250,000 to 500,000 a year (sounds a lot but some 250,000 people die each day). SARS reportedly killed 8,600 people - less than a days average deaths from regular flu - it killed no-one in the US. Swine flu has reported 160 incidences outside Mexico and several hundred inside the country. Deaths from the flu have been reported from as little as 20 to over 100.

I am not going to check all of your figures but I know for a fact that less than 800 people died from SARS - where the heck did you get a figure of 8,600!!!??

The need to keep things in perspective is a good point. However, comparing absolute numbers may not show much. To my understanding fatal seasonal flu is normally a concern mainly for the elderly, the sick and the young whereas this H1N1/swine seems to be affecting all age groups and healthy adults. Again, this is a new strain which has mutated so there is no vaccine as yet and it will take upwards of 6 months to make according to the WHO/CDC.

The unknowns are seemingly why the health professionals are being very careful and preparing for a possible pandemic even though H1N1 seems to be stablising and appears to be a "mild strain" according to the WHo yesterday? Reportedly, there are now 600 cases in 17 countries. Still a small caseload but no one heard of SARS until a few months after the first case in China, then it spread very rapidly in a short time.

Where are our resident TF Drs for expert comment?

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I am not going to check all of your figures but I know for a fact that less than 800 people died from SARS - where the heck did you get a figure of 8,600!!!??

Still a small caseload but no one heard of SARS until a few months after the first case in China, then it spread very rapidly in a short time.

Absolutely right on the SARS numbers - there were 8000 cases (not deaths) and 774 deaths. (Wiki) Still whats a zero between friends.

Based on those numbers 'it spread rapidly in a short time' is a bit of a stretch. In that the numbers are so insignificant that 'spread' doesnt seem to apply and 'rapidly' would only be meaningful if it happened in less than an hour. Afterall, on average 400 people die every minute.

Over a million die of malaria every year and 800k die from tuberculosis. Still by 2030 it will all change - the leading global cause of death is expected to be AIDS with the second biggest killer being 'depression'.

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Not to sound paranoid... but there are a few odd things about this virus that are emerging. ..The most alarming is that it appears to have genetic material from avian flu, human flu, and swine flu. ..Since flu viruses do not exchange genetic material during their reproductive cycle, how could this be a natural phenomenon?!

If you look at the actual DNA sequence, it's mostly pig. The avian and human sequences are blurred out, telling you that this strain has been around for at least a decade.

Chimeric viruses are common. Recombination between different strains may not be common on a per virus basis, but all it takes is one successful event.

There's no conspiracy on the part of mad scientists here.

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Not to sound paranoid... but there are a few odd things about this virus that are emerging. ..The most alarming is that it appears to have genetic material from avian flu, human flu, and swine flu. ..Since flu viruses do not exchange genetic material during their reproductive cycle, how could this be a natural phenomenon?!

If you look at the actual DNA sequence, it's mostly pig. The avian and human sequences are blurred out, telling you that this strain has been around for at least a decade.

Chimeric viruses are common. Recombination between different strains may not be common on a per virus basis, but all it takes is one successful event.

There's no conspiracy on the part of mad scientists here.

With all the arrogant genetic experiments going on anything is possible.

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Not to sound paranoid... but there are a few odd things about this virus that are emerging. ..The most alarming is that it appears to have genetic material from avian flu, human flu, and swine flu. ..Since flu viruses do not exchange genetic material during their reproductive cycle, how could this be a natural phenomenon?!

If you look at the actual DNA sequence, it's mostly pig. The avian and human sequences are blurred out, telling you that this strain has been around for at least a decade.

Chimeric viruses are common. Recombination between different strains may not be common on a per virus basis, but all it takes is one successful event.

There's no conspiracy on the part of mad scientists here.

With all the arrogant genetic experiments going on anything is possible.

Arrogant as opposed to humble?

Really do have to feel sorry for those 300 people still locked up in a HK hotel - I would be tearing my hair out!

Seems that mexico city will life the city shutdown tomorrow. Anyone imagine BKK being shutdown for 5 days? I guess it would be like Songkran without the water.

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I dont get it - everyone worried about swine flu when we are all going to die from depression.

When I say all I actually mean the poor are going to die of AIDS and the rich are going to die of depression (thats whats the stats show). This should give religion a new boost.

What is really worrying and depressing me even more (but without actually dying) is that I cant understand quite how depression will kill you.

I mean if I shoot myself I will get classified under self-inflicted injuries not death by depression. If I throw myself under a bus, I will be a 'road accident' and if I get COPD I will die and be seriously depressed that I wont know whats wrong with me.

If I catch AIDS which might be the number 1. killer I will certainly be depressed.

So I am most likely to die of depression but if I die of something else I will probably be depressed anyways.

What really pisses me off is that they are going to spend huge amounts of money on curing various deceases and apparently total fail to produce one that makes happy. What is even worse is that I willing to bet that someone invents one - and then it is declared illegal. That would be f**king depressing.

Given these circumstances I cant understand why everyones so concerned with global warming especially after the invention of air conditioners.

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LakeGeneve wrote:

Arrogant as opposed to humble?

Humble would serve them well playing god with genetics. All one has to do is look at mans disastrous history of messing with nature. Well the supposed ignorant savages did and do very well but modern man in trying to improve nature has caused major headaches.

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LakeGeneve wrote:
Arrogant as opposed to humble?

Humble would serve them well playing god with genetics. All one has to do is look at mans disastrous history of messing with nature. Well the supposed ignorant savages did and do very well but modern man in trying to improve nature has caused major headaches.

ffs that's an enormous crock of **** even by TF standards. do your ******* homework instead of spouting earthy-crunchy talking point fantasies.

ever eat wheat? drink milk? eat rice? all products of GENETIC ENGINEERING. we've been doing it for centuries.

not to say it can't go wrong, but is, in principle, the same process breeding hybrid crops. NEWS FLASH: FRANKENSTEIN WAS A MOVIE. it was a lot more realistic than your "frankenfoods'" conspiracy fantasyland too.

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1 out of 3? I like my chances. :roll:

I think I'll just stay under my bed for a few months...hope the virus doesn't spread by computer.

It's so hard for them to predict how far this will spread now. Yes, we have become a lot more advanced in medicine, and we can diagnose and treat these outbreaks more accurately and efficiently. However, we are a more mobile world now. Intercontinental travel is a lot more common nowadays, and this will counteract our advances in medicine.

Who wins? Let's hope WHO wins.

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FA51E88C7F4068B84DCF8F0AC742.jpg

....this is a photo from msn, its a tube train in Mexico after a five day government shutdown to contain the flu ended.

..."symptoms of swine flu, include coughing and nasal congestion."

..the woman is coughing

...I read the column after noticing this and any sane person can see that it will spread and it will affect, but the severity of the pandemic would not be as severe as the fear and hysteria that would occur if what is expected were common knowledge,

..if everybody stopped eating pork then we would stand a better chance

...79

...79

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was checking out the latest WHO Sitrep on H1N1 and was surprised to see that the caseload has exploded in Japan in the last 2 days with 117 confirmed new cases. (The WHO stats are always a day behind)

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 32

18 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 18 May 2009, 40 countries have officially reported 8829 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 74 deaths.

See table at; http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_18/en/index.html

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